Core view: The company's performance reached a record high in 23, the 24Q1 performance was slightly lower than expected, supply-side improvements continued to accelerate, and the boom is expected to continue.
The 24Q1 performance fell slightly short of expectations, maintaining the “Overweight” rating. The company achieved operating income of 724 million yuan in '23, an increase of 117.94% year on year, and achieved net profit of 175 million yuan to mother, which reversed losses year on year. Both revenue and net profit indicators reached new highs since listing. Considering that the company's 24Q1 performance was slightly lower than previous expectations, the previous profit forecast was lowered. The company's net profit to mother is estimated to be 2.03/2.45/267 million yuan in 24-26 (previously forecast net profit to mother of 236/255 million yuan for 24/25), corresponding to PE 21.2/17.5/16.1, maintaining the “gain” rating.
A 23-year dividend plan to boost the percentage. The company's 23-year profit distribution plan is: cash payment of 0.79 yuan (tax included) per share. The plan is to distribute a total of 87 million yuan in cash, accounting for 50% of net profit returned to mother in '23, with a dividend rate of 2.0% based on the closing price on April 18, '24.
The 24Q1 performance was slightly lower than expected due to weather effects, and short-term events did not change the long-term logic. 24Q1 achieved revenue of 180 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.13%, and realized net profit of 52 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.80%. According to news from the Jiuhuashan Management Committee, the scenic area was closed at the end of February due to weather conditions. Due to the suspension of the opening of the scenic area, the cumulative number of visitors received in January-January decreased by 8.59% year-on-year. Affected by the relative rigidity of costs, the 24Q1 gross profit margin was 54.7%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3 pct, resulting in slightly lower performance than expected. Overall, 24Q1 was disrupted by short-term events, which did not affect the long-term prosperity of the scenic area.
The research report for the Lion Peak Scenic Area project has been released and is expected to be put into use in November '26. The company released a research report on the Lion Peak Scenic Area. The estimated investment amount of the project is 326 million yuan. The project will build infrastructure such as ropeways, tourist service centers, and alpine sightseeing trails. It is expected to be put into use in November '26. The average annual profit after tax during the operation period of the project is 37 million yuan.
The supply-side improvements in Jiuhua tourism have accelerated in 24 years, and the number of visitors during the Qingming holiday season has increased to confirm the boom. Supply-side improvements and acceleration in 24 were mainly realized as follows: 1. The Chihuang High Speed Rail was put into trial operation on March 26, '24, and opened to traffic during the year. Since then, Mount Jiuhua has been connected to the national high-speed rail network. 2. The Jiuhuashan Transportation Conversion Center function upgrade project completed the construction of the main functional area on the 24th Spring Festival and was initially put into use. According to news from the Jiuhuashan Management Committee, Jiuhuashan received a total of 110,500 visitors during the Qingming holiday in '24, an increase of 120.82% year-on-year according to comparable standards, confirming the boom.
Risk warning: (1) risk of natural disasters; (2) risk of passenger flow falling short of expectations; (3) risk of changes in various ticket prices in scenic spots.