2024 年，公司冷轧不锈钢计划产销量320 万吨，较2023 年销量增长约13.5%? 需求偏弱导致宽幅/精密冷轧产品吨毛利下滑2023 年，公司销售毛利率/净利率分别为4.79%/1.55%，分别同比提高0.22/0.03 pct。分产品来看，精密冷轧300 系/精密冷轧400 系/宽幅冷轧300 系BA/宽幅冷轧400 系BA/宽幅冷轧300 系2B 吨毛利分别为1333/510/1145/161/642 元/吨，分别同比减少770/58/80/309/30 元/吨。受下游需求疲软影响，冷轧不锈钢价格下降，公司宽幅、精密冷轧产品吨毛利下滑。费用率方面，2023 年公司期间费用率为2.74%，同比提高0.08 pct。Incidents:
The company released its 2023 annual report. In 2023, it achieved operating income of 39.874 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.81%, achieved net profit of 453 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.94%; realized net profit without deduction of 427 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.50%.
The main cold rolled stainless steel industry bucked the trend and operated steadily. Production and sales volume increased by double digits year on year in 2023. The company produced 2,8356 million tons of cold rolled stainless steel, up 15.14% year on year, and sales volume of 2,819,800 tons, up 14.42% year on year. Among them, wide cold rolled 300 series 2B/wide cold rolled 400 series BA/precision cold rolled 400 series/wide cold rolled 300 series BA sales were 220.12/31.67/4.92/393 million tons, respectively +10.19% compared with the same period /+47.87%/+16.64%/-24.69%/+91.56%. Guangdong Yongjin and Zhejiang Yongjin added additional production capacity to achieve almost full production in a relatively short period of time.
In 2024, the company plans to produce and sell 3.2 million tons of cold-rolled stainless steel, an increase of about 13.5% over 2023 sales? Weak demand led to a decline in gross profit per ton of broad/precision cold-rolled products in 2023. The company's gross sales margin/net profit margin was 4.79%/1.55%, respectively, up 0.22/0.03 pct year-on-year, respectively. By product, the gross profit of precision cold rolling 300 series/precision cold rolling 400 series/wide cold rolling 300 series BA/wide cold rolling 400 series BA/wide cold rolling 300 series 2B was 1333/510/1145/161/642 yuan/642 yuan/ton, respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 770/58/80/309/30 yuan/ton, respectively. Affected by weak downstream demand, the price of cold-rolled stainless steel fell, and the company's gross profit per ton of wide and precision cold-rolled products declined. In terms of the cost rate, the company's expense rate for the 2023 period was 2.74%, an increase of 0.08 pct over the previous year.
The pre-plated nickel and titanium new material project is expected to be tested in June 2024. The company's special shell material project with an annual output of 225,000 tons for cylindrical batteries (phase I) and the new titanium alloy material project with an annual output of 60,000 tons (phase I) are expected to reach the trial production stage in June 2024. After production is officially put into operation, the company will add 75,000 tons of pre-plated nickel-plated steel strip and 15,000 tons of titanium per year. New businesses such as titanium and pre-plating are booming and have strong medium- to long-term growth attributes, which are expected to bring new performance growth points to the company.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
The company's main stainless steel cold rolling business is operating steadily, and new production capacity is being released in an orderly manner; the new pre-plated nickel and titanium business is expected to bring new performance growth points. We expect the company's 2024-2026 net profit to be 635/722/813 million yuan, respectively, and EPS of 1.73/1.97/2.22 yuan, respectively. Referring to comparable company valuations, we gave the company 12.4 times PE in 24 years, with a target price of 21.46 yuan, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Risk of a sharp decline in downstream demand; risk of large fluctuations in raw material prices; increased risk of industry competition; release of new production capacity falls short of expectations; new business development falls short of expectations.
