I would like to pay attention to the following 3 points in the transaction before the 19th.

■The decline in TSMC weighs on high-tech stocks

■KOA, 24/3 revised upward operating profit of 3,313 billion yen ← 230 billion yen

■Notable materials from the front floor: Fuji Electric produces low voltage inverters in Canada and supplies them to North America

■The decline in TSMC weighs on high-tech stocks

The Japanese stock market on the 19th is likely to search for a bottom after a round of sales. In the US market on the 18th, the NY Dow was 22 dollars higher and the NASDAQ was 81 points lower. Expectations for interest rate cuts receding in response to hawkish statements etc. from senior US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, etc., and a slowdown in demand was feared because Taiwan Integrated Circuit Manufacturing (TSMC) lowered market prospects due to sluggish smartphone/PC sales, and it became a burden on the market price. Chicago Nikkei 225 futures are 37790 yen, 380 yen lower than Osaka. The yen exchange rate is hovering at 154 yen 60 yen per dollar.

Let's start by moving towards Chicago futures before selling. There was also a scene where yesterday's Nikkei Stock Average was bought immediately after TSMC's financial results, but it is likely that anxiousy sales will enter high-tech stocks in response to TSMC's decline. Nikkei 225 futures were temporarily sold up to 37720 yen during the night session, dropping to the 75-day line level. The Nikkei Stock Average yesterday showed a battle and defense at the 75-day line level, but if it seems that it falls below the same line again, the trend of holding adjustments will easily intensify, and the trend of setting up sales led by futures is likely to be wary.

In Bollinger Bands, -2σ, which is moving downward, is easily perceived as resistance. There seems to be awareness that it is oversold, but in a phase where it clearly falls below the 75-day line, I would like to be wary of the possibility that the bias up to around -3σ will intensify. Since financial results announcements are in full swing in the future, it is thought that institutional investors will not move aggressively, and they will be more susceptible to mechanical trading such as short-term hedge funds.

While the US is being swayed by the financial results of major companies, the Tokyo market is likely to see similar movements starting next week, and the wait-and-see attitude is likely to intensify. Therefore, the overall market price is in an unstable situation, so let's move towards individual support using settlement as a clue. Also, since it is difficult to handle high-tech stocks, it is expected that TOPIX type advantage will develop in the near future. Note, it seems that trends in Virtualek ＜6193＞ and Bronco B ＜3091＞ will attract attention in last night's financial results.

■KOA, 24/3 revised upward operating profit of 3,313 billion yen ← 230 billion yen

KOA (6999) announced revisions to its earnings forecast for the fiscal year ending 2024/3. Sales were slightly lower than planned from 65.10 billion yen to 64.835 billion yen, but operating income was revised upward from 230 billion yen to 3,313 billion yen. As for sales, demand has been steady in the automotive market, but customer inventory adjustments continue, mainly in the industrial equipment and consumer equipment markets. On the profit side, in addition to exchange rate effects, it exceeds expectations due to cost suppression, etc.

■Notable materials from the front

・The Nikkei Average rose (38079.70, +117.90)

・The NY Dow rose (37775.38, +22.07)

・The VIX Index declined (18.00, -0.21)

・US crude oil futures rose (82.73, +0.04)

・Expectations that US inflation will calm down

・Request for improvement of corporate value by the Tokyo Stock Exchange

・Fuji Electric ＜6504＞produces low voltage inverters in Canada and supplies them to North America

・Oracle Japan ＜4716＞ invests 1.2 trillion yen in the Japanese business over 10 years and expands data centers

・Fujitsu ＜6702＞ collaborates with US Oracle to provide a “sovereign cloud”

・RYODEN ＜8084＞Niigata Artificial Intelligence Research Institute and others collaborate using generative AI

・Kandenko＜1942＞ was the first to accept foreigners in electrical work and utilize the specific skill system

・Mitsubishi Corp. ＜8058＞Maintaining living infrastructure and creating businesses along with regional revitalization in Chiba and Choshi

・Sojitz ＜2768＞Received an order for 45 billion yen for Jakarta High Speed Rail extension work

・Pacific Industries ＜7250＞ expands electronic expansion valves for EVs and has a dedicated factory at the Gifu/Kitaogaki Plant

・Honda ＜7267＞ US authorities investigate 3 million Honda cars, is there a problem with automatic brakes

・Nissan's own ＜7201＞ Sakamoto Hideyuki Vice President “Growing 'All Solids'”

・Deep cultivation of energy in North America with Hirano Tech Seed ＜6245＞ coating machine, and proposals for high-performance models for next-generation batteries

・Azbil ＜6845＞New plant in Thailand, 1.5 billion yen investment, production of electromagnetic flow meters, etc.

☆ Front office event schedule

＜Domestic＞

・ 08:30 March National Consumer Price Index (excluding fresh food) (year-on-year forecast: +2.7%, February +2.8%)

＜Overseas＞

・Nothing in particular