Global macroscopic
Before the Thursday market, the three major indices collectively rallied before the market
The number of jobless claims in the US at the beginning of last week was 212,000, lower than expected
The number of jobless claims in the US until the beginning of April 13 was 212,000, estimated at 215,000, compared to 211,000 previously.
Is rising inflation forcing Powell to “hit the brakes fast”? Goldman Sachs: It's all an illusion
As inflation persisted, economists and analysts began to question whether the US economy could achieve a soft landing. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius pointed out that the current high inflation is mainly due to “an unusually large number of special factors,” including rising stock prices and short-term surges in rents. But these two phenomena are temporary. More importantly, Goldman Sachs has found no sign of large-scale US layoffs, which are usually warning signs of a hard landing. Goldman Sachs expects US inflation to continue to fall, and estimates that the inflation rate will stop at around 2.5% by the end of this year.
Citibank reverses the market and predicts that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates five times. Could core PCE data be the key?
Although the market's expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut have cooled drastically recently, Citibank analysts believe that it is wrong to rush to make a judgment because the Fed is still worried that unexpectedly strong economic growth may come to a standstill. They both insist that interest rates will be cut by 25 basis points five times this year. The key point of their opinion is the upcoming core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index, which is an inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve. Citigroup economists expect that if the index shows that the monthly increase in March and April is roughly the same as February (about 0.25%), which proves that inflation has cooled down, then the Federal Reserve will find “an opportunity to 'gradually' lower policy interest rates starting in June or July.”
Has the sharp drop in US debt triggered a wave of bottom-breaking? US overseas “creditors” held a record amount of US debt in February
The US Treasury released the International Capital Flows Report (TIC) for February 2024. The report shows that as the price of US bonds plummeted at the beginning of the year, America's major overseas “creditors” increased their holdings of US Treasury bonds one after another in February. Six of the top ten “creditors” increased their holdings in the same month, and the total size of their holdings also reached a record high. Among the top ten US “creditors” overseas, six increased their holdings of US debt in the same month. Only China and the three famous European offshore financial centers — Switzerland, Ireland, and the Cayman Islands — reduced their holdings in the same month.
Bitcoin once surpassed 63,000 US dollars/coin and rose nearly 4% during the day
The fourth halving in Bitcoin's history has entered the final countdown, but no one can accurately predict the exact timing of the halving. The coin community generally expects it to happen around April 19-20. The current block reward is 6.25 BTC, which will drop to 3.125 when halved. Earlier on Wednesday, the price of Bitcoin plummeted to 59,900 US dollars, the lowest price since March. As of press release, Bitcoin has risen by about 4%, and the price once surpassed 63,000 US dollars/coin.
Hot news
The pre-market trend of Star Technology stocks diverged, and Nvidia rose more than 1%
TSMC's Q1 revenue and net profit both exceeded expectations
$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$In 2024, Q1 revenue was NT$592.64 billion, up 16.5% year on year, down 5.3% month on month, and Q1 net profit of NT$225.49 billion, up 8.9% year on year and 5.5% month on month, all higher than market expectations. TSMC expects revenue growth in 2024 to reach the middle to low end of the 20% range in US dollars. CEO Wei Zhejia mentioned that TSMC's healthy growth target this year remains unchanged. However, the growth forecast for the global foundry industry was revised down 20% to 10% from the previous forecast. As of press release, TSMC was down more than 2% before.
Micron Technology rose nearly 2% before the market and is expected to receive more than $6 billion in chip law funding
$Micron Technology (MU.US)$Up nearly 2% in the premarket. According to some sources, Micron Technology is expected to receive more than 6 billion US dollars in funding from the US Department of Commerce for local factory construction projects. According to people familiar with the matter, the matter has not yet been finalized and may be announced as early as next week. It is currently unclear whether Micron plans to accept loans that can be provided by the 2022 Chip and Science Act in addition to direct funding.
There aren't many GPUs! Microsoft is said to be hoarding one million GPUs this year, and still has a “big plan” of 100 billion US dollars
According to a document seen by the media,$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$The internal plan is to have 1.8 million artificial intelligence chips by the end of 2024, which means Microsoft plans to triple the number of graphics processing units (GPUs) it has this year. People familiar with the matter revealed that from the current fiscal year to the 2027 fiscal year, Microsoft is expected to spend around $100 billion on GPUs and data centers.
Tech giants are increasing Japan, and Oracle will invest more than $8 billion in cloud computing and AI in 10 years
$Oracle (ORCL.US)$On April 17, local time, it was announced that it will invest more than 8 billion US dollars over 10 years starting this year to meet Japan's growing demand for cloud computing and artificial intelligence infrastructure. The statement said the investment will expand the coverage of Oracle Cloud Infrastructure Remote Software Service (OracleCloudInfrastructure) in Japan. Additionally, to help customers and partners meet Japan's digital sovereignty requirements, Oracle will significantly expand its business and staff engineering teams in Japan.
Damo: Asmack orders are weaker than expected, and sales records are expected to recover strongly in the coming year
According to a research report published by Morgan Stanley,$ASML Holding (ASML.US)$The order volume for the first quarter was 3.6 billion euros, lower than the forecast of 5.9 billion and about 5.1 billion euros from Damo and the market. Among them, orders for extreme ultraviolet (EUV) were only 656 million euros, which is clearly weak compared to 3.6 billion euros in the previous quarter. However, the bank still believes that the group is in the order recovery stage, and it is expected that sales will record a strong recovery next year. Damo said that ASML's management maintains the Group's 2025 fiscal year guidelines and is expected to achieve significant growth during the period, so the sales guidelines of between 30 billion and 40 billion euros and gross margin of 54 to 56% remain unchanged.
Berkshire issued yen-denominated bonds totaling 263.3 billion yen
Under Buffett$Berkshire Hathaway-A (BRK.A.US)$Decide the terms for issuing Japanese yen bonds. According to Mizuho Securities statistics, the total amount of the 7 bonds issued was 263.3 billion yen (about 12.1 billion yuan).
Focus on China Securities
Most of the popular Chinese securities stocks rose before the market
Top 20 pre-market turnover of US stocks
US Stock Macro Calendar Reminder
(The following are all Beijing time)
20:30 Number of jobless claims in the US at the beginning of the week ending April 13
20:30 US April Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index
At 21:15 FOMC Permanent Voting Committee and New York Federal Reserve Chairman Williams delivered speeches
22:00 Total annualized sales of existing homes in the US in March
23:00 2024 FOMC Voting Committee and Atlanta Federal Reserve Chairman Bostic delivered a speech on the economy
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