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小商品城(600415)2023年年报&2024年一季报点评:综合贸易服务商转型步入收获期 租金上涨逐步落地

Commodity City (600415) 2023 Annual Report & 2024 Quarterly Report Review: The transformation of integrated trade service providers enters the harvest period, and rent increases gradually come to fruition

東北證券 ·  Apr 17

There was a high increase in new business, and net profit after deducting non-return to mother increased by 39.86% year-on-year in 2023. In 2023, the company's revenue of 11.30 billion yuan increased 48.30% year on year, net profit of 2,676 billion yuan increased 142.25% year on year, and net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 2,469 billion yuan increased 39.86% year over year. Market operating revenue was 3,074 billion yuan, an increase of 81.16% over the previous year due to the additional operating carry-over revenue of the new energy products market in the second district east and the impact of the implementation of rent reduction policies in the same period in '22. Meanwhile, revenue from information services such as the Chinagoods platform increased year-on-year, and revenue from trade services increased 43.37% year-on-year to 602 million yuan. Meanwhile, due to the increase in hotel occupancy rates and the expansion of the exhibition business, revenue from supporting services was 467 million yuan, an increase of 79.30% over the previous year. In addition, product sales revenue was 6.792 billion yuan, up 37.22% year over year.

Net profit fluctuated in Q1 in '24, and profit increased 95.95% year over year after excluding investment income and asset disposal effects. In 2024, the company's revenue of 2,681 million yuan increased 26.42% year over year, and net profit to mother of 713 million yuan decreased by 41.66% year on year. In Q1 2024, investment income from joint ventures and joint ventures decreased by 729 million yuan year on year, asset disposal decreased by 165 million yuan year on year, and profit after excluding the above factors increased 95.95% year on year. From January to February 2024, Yiwu's total export value reached 102.77 billion yuan, an increase of 41.0%. Meanwhile, the new GMV added to the ChinaGoodSAI smart innovation platform reached 11 billion yuan in the first quarter, an increase of 37.5% year-on-year. The YiWuPay platform's cross-border RMB business grew particularly rapidly, with more than 6.2 billion yuan in cross-border transactions completed in the first quarter.

The rent increase is gradually being implemented, and the rent growth rate is expected to be no less than 5% in the next three years. In 2023, the company combined the Yiwu Index to construct a differentiated pricing model for commercial rents by introducing indicators such as GDP growth rate, market-based rent price fluctuations, market sentiment index, and market commodity price index. At the end of 2023, rents for maturing business positions in the market were adjusted, and rents increased by an average of 5.5%. The growth rate is expected to be no less than 5% over the next three years.

Digital people cover more than 3,300 merchants, and the amount of intangible assets-data resources that can be confirmed at the end of Q1 2024 exceeds 8 million yuan. On the AI side, the company launched AI for small businesses, digital people, AI smart product launch, smart map, etc. By the end of December '23, the multi-language digital boss lady function covered more than 3,300 merchants. In terms of data elements, the company will continue to expand investment related to data elements in 2024. At the end of Q1, the amount of intangible assets-data resources that the company can confirm exceeds 8 million yuan.

Profit forecast: We forecast a 6.66%, 13.36%, and 15.12% increase in net profit due to 2024-2026, respectively, covering a “buy” rating for the first time.

Risk warning: New business development falls short of expectations; major power game; profit forecast downgraded.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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