Incident: The company's 2023 revenue was 2.607 billion yuan, down 13.59% year on year; net profit due to mother was 296 million yuan, down 63.77% year on year; net profit after deduction was 281 million yuan, down 53.66% year on year. Among them, the company's revenue for the Q4 quarter was 619 million yuan, down 14.11% year on year; net profit to mother was 08 billion yuan, down 96.21% year on year; net profit after deduction was 0.16 million yuan, down 81.26% year on year.
Both exports and domestic markets were weak, and revenue and profit declined year on year. On the demand side, judging from export data, the average export price of glass fiber and its products fell 16.64% year on year in 2023; however, due to weak domestic demand, glass fiber prices also fell sharply by 28.17% year on year. In this context, the company's product prices and sales volume were under pressure, and revenue and performance were affected by this, which affected the year-on-year decline by 13.59% and 63.77%, respectively.
The decline in the price of a single ton affects the profit of a ton, and the scale affects the cost and cost of a ton. In 2023, the company's revenue per ton of glass fiber and products was 6,973 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 1202 yuan/ton; the cost per ton was 5041 yuan/ton, an increase of 73 yuan/ton over the previous year. On the cost side, the company's cost per ton of glass fiber and products in 2023 was 798 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton over the previous year. On the profit side, the company's net profit per ton of glass fiber and products in 2023 was 790 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 1,423 yuan/ton. Since 2023, the overall economy has maintained a moderate recovery. Weak demand and increased supply have led to a sharp drop in product prices. The company's integrated layout advantages are obvious, and it has remained profitable in this context.
Costs and inventory replenishment support prices, and subsequent economic recovery releases demand. In the short term, industry costs support the rise in prices. At the same time, against the backdrop of the continuous decline in prices of glass fiber products, downstream processing and manufacturing companies have basically maintained minimum inventory in order to reduce inventory losses. Under the current situation of price increases, downstream has begun to actively replenish stocks and push prices to land. In the medium to long term, the growth in demand for glass fiber is strongly correlated with the economy. The ratio to GDP growth is about 1.5-2.0. The target for this year's economic growth rate is 5%, and the GDP growth rate in the first quarter is 5.3% year on year. The economic recovery has also led to an increase in demand for glass fiber, supporting the overall price system.
Investment advice: We expect the company to achieve net profit of 367/5.27/721 million yuan in 2024-2026, respectively, with a year-on-year change of 23.8%/43.7%/36.8%. The latest closing price corresponding PE is 11.3x/7.9x/5.7x, maintaining the “increase” rating.
Risk warning: Wind power installations fall short of expectations; risk of exchange rate fluctuations; industry declines beyond expectations.