The company discloses 23 years of results. The company achieved net profit of 6.717 billion yuan in '23, an increase of 60.23% over the previous year; realized net profit of 6.614 billion yuan without return to mother, an increase of 111.27% over the previous year. Looking at a single quarter, the company achieved net profit of 1,364 billion yuan in Q23, down 29.51% from the previous year, turning a loss into a profit over the same period last year; net profit without deduction of 1,685 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.65% over the previous year. The company's profit distribution plan for 23 years is to distribute cash dividends of 0.8 yuan (tax included) for every 10 shares, for a total distribution of 1.37 billion yuan.
Changes in the volume and price of the main business in '23. 1) Volume: Primary aluminum (including alloy) /alumina production in '23 was 6.79 million tons/16.67 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%/5.5%, respectively. 2) Price: The price of A00 aluminum in '23 was 18,696 yuan/ton, down 6.5% year on year; the average unit price of alumina was 2,919 yuan/ton, down 1% year on year. 3) Benefits:
In '23, the gross profit margin of the company's original aluminum sector was 13.20%, up 0.87% year on year, and the gross profit margin of the alumina sector was 10.85%, down 6.44% year on year.
Core projects continue to advance. The company accelerated industrial restructuring, and actively promoted a number of key projects such as the Guangxi Huasheng Phase II 2 million-ton alumina project, the Inner Mongolia Huayun 420,000 ton light alloy material project, the Qinghai branch 500,000 ton electrolytic aluminum project, and the Baotou Aluminum Damaoqi 1200MW source network load storage project; Ningdong's 250MW photovoltaic was fully connected to the grid, and the affiliated company added 303MW of distributed photovoltaics; the company made breakthroughs in the high-purity aluminum and “small metal” industries, and the scale of gallium metal production capacity rose to the top in the world.
Deepen cost reduction and efficiency, and continue to optimize the asset structure. The company continues to deepen all-factor benchmarking and raise the level of professional benchmarking and process benchmarking. The comprehensive energy consumption of alumina, the comprehensive AC consumption of aluminum liquid, and the coal consumption for generator sets have all reached the highest level in history, and the effect of reducing consumption costs is obvious. Throughout 2023, the company's carbon emissions decreased by 1.25 million tons year over year. By the end of 2023, the company's balance ratio was 53.30%, down 5.37% from the beginning of the year, and the asset structure was continuously optimized.
Bauxite resources are abundant, and the advantages of integration are consolidated. The company produces 30.42 million tons of bauxite throughout the year, adding 21 million tons of domestic bauxite resources in 2023. The company not only has the highest domestic bauxite resources, but also has about 1.8 billion tons of bauxite resources overseas. The company focuses on constructing a “3×5” industrial development pattern. Through the optimal allocation of value chains, enterprise chains, supply and demand chains, and spatial chains, the company and related enterprises have formed a win-win situation where the company and related enterprises improve efficiency and reduce costs in the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain, and the advantages of integration are further consolidated.
Profit forecasting and valuation. We expect that in the next three years, the company will benefit from the integrated layout advantages of bauxite-alumina-electrolytic aluminum and usher in a period of rapid net profit growth. The company's 24-26 EPS is expected to be 0.54, 0.65, and 0.79 yuan/share, respectively. Referring to the valuation level of comparable companies, considering the company's leading position in the industry and continued cost reduction and efficiency in the context of central state-owned enterprise reform, a PE valuation of 15-17 times in 2024 was given, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 8.1-9.18 yuan/share, which covered the “superior to the market” rating for the first time. Risk warning. Downstream demand falls short of expectations; risk of changes in raw material prices; macroeconomics falls short of expectations.