Agencies expect the mismatch between global pulp supply and demand to be prominent in the second quarter
On March 22, Suzano announced that in April 2024, the price of broadleaf pulp in the Asian market will rise by 30 US dollars/ton, the European market will rise 80 US dollars/ton, and the North American market will rise 100 US dollars/ton.
Russian needle announced that the price of coniferous pulp in the Chinese market in April was 790 US dollars/ton, and supply was halved due to pulp mill maintenance and conversion; Mercer's Canadian Moon softwood pulp price was 820 US dollars/ton in April.
Since March, the global supply of wood pulp has been affected by the strike in Finland. The price of wood pulp has continued to rise, and the paper industry has ushered in a new wave of price increases.
Huatai Securities pointed out that against the backdrop of increased fluctuations in raw material prices, enterprises with an integrated upstream and downstream layout are expected to gain more advantages. It is expected that by 2024, supply and demand in the paper industry will gradually reach an inflection point, and enterprises with an integrated upstream and downstream layout will consolidate their competitive advantage.
Orient Securities released a research report stating that starting at the end of 2023, the European and American paper industry chains are coming to an end, and demand for pulp is gradually picking up. Global pulp supply disturbances have been frequent since March. The mismatch between global pulp supply and demand is expected to be prominent in the second quarter. Combined, pulp inventories in the entire industry chain are at a medium to low level, and pulp prices are expected to maintain a strong trend in the second quarter.
In terms of bulk paper, we are currently in the traditional peak season for cultural paper. If pulp prices continue to be strong, cultural paper prices are expected to achieve cost transmission, and cultural paper industry leaders, which account for a relatively high proportion of self-supply pulp, are expected to benefit from this round of rising paper prices and achieve profitable expansion.
Companies with concepts related to rising paper prices:
Chenming Paper (01812), Liwen Paper (02314), Nine Dragons Paper (02689), Sunshine Paper (02002)