2023 年部分下游客户节奏放缓，收入确认延期影响利润表现。公司2023 年实现收入3.78 亿元，同比+3.03%，实现归母净利润0.88 亿元，同比-27.9%；实现毛利率65.47%，同比-2.07pct，主要系2023 年部分下游客户项目节奏放缓，影响收入确认，4 季度收入为0.73 亿元，同比-49.64%；收入确认滞后，前置成本影响盈利能力表现。公司2023 年销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别为14.6%/11.9%/10.86%/-0.06%，同比分别+3.23pct/+0.49pct/+1.43pct/+0.06pct，主要系销售费用、研发费用投入增加，计入当期成本，收入端确认有延期，造成费用率有所提升。Matters:
The company released its 2023 annual report and 2024 quarterly report. The company achieved revenue of 378 million yuan in 2023, +3.03% year-on-year, and realized net profit of 88 million yuan, or -27.9%; the company achieved revenue of 104 million yuan in Q1 of 2024, +45.2% year-on-year, and realized net profit of 27 million yuan, or +165.7% year-on-year.
Commentary:
The pace of some downstream customers slowed in 2023, and the delay in revenue recognition affected profit performance. The company achieved revenue of 378 million yuan in 2023, +3.03% year over year, achieving net profit of 88 million yuan, -27.9% year on year; achieving gross profit margin of 65.47%, -2.07pct year on year, mainly due to the slowdown in the pace of some downstream customer projects in 2023, affecting revenue recognition. Revenue for the fourth quarter was 73 million yuan, or -49.64% year over year; revenue recognition was delayed, and upfront costs affected profitability performance. The company's sales/management/R&D/finance expenses rates in 2023 were 14.6%/11.9%/10.86%/-0.06%, respectively, +3.23pct/+0.49pct/+1.43pct/+0.06pct, respectively. The main reason was the increase in sales expenses and R&D expenses, which were included in current costs. The revenue side confirmed that there was a delay, resulting in an increase in the cost rate.
Since Q1, disturbances have basically been eliminated, and the growth trend has returned. The company achieved revenue of 104 million yuan in Q1 2024, +45.2% year over year, and achieved net profit of 0.27 million yuan, achieving a gross profit margin of 67.27%. Mainly deferred projects gradually confirmed revenue in Q1 2024; the company's contract liabilities as of the end of Q1 2024 were 22.92 million yuan, an increase of 5.2 million yuan over the end of 2023, and an increase of 8.02 million yuan over the end of Q1 in 2023, reflecting the optimistic growth of the company's new orders signed in Q1.
Optimistic about domestic replacement and PHM penetration rate improvement, the six-dimensional torque sensor layout opens up new space. The requirements for structural optimization and structural safety in the modernization and intelligent development of weapons and equipment are gradually increasing. The product strength of the company's structural mechanical performance testing and analysis systems has been continuously improved over the years, and the localization process is expected to continue to advance in the future. China's industrial equipment condition monitoring and fault diagnosis industry is still in a stage of rapid development. It is expected that in the future, with the increase in the penetration rate of national defense and military safety monitoring and management, the development of unmanned and intelligent weapons and equipment, and the promotion of digital reforms in central and state-owned enterprises, the company's PHM business is expected to maintain a rapid growth trend. In 2023, the company's six-dimensional torque sensor entered the internal development stage. The goals are crosstalk < 2% FS, nonlinearity < 0.5% FS, and lag: < 0.5% FS. It can be applied to fields such as robotics, scientific research, automated inspection, etc. We are optimistic about the company's processing and production design capabilities in the sensor field, and there may be further breakthroughs in the sensor market in the future.
Investment advice: Considering the slowdown in the pace of some downstream customers in 2023, we appropriately lowered our previous forecast. We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 6.46/8.54/1,086 million yuan (the previous 24/25 forecast was 8.36/1,115 million yuan, respectively), +70.9%/32.1%/27.2% year-on-year, respectively; net profit to the mother for 2024-2026 was 2.02/2.71 billion yuan/352 million yuan, respectively (the previous 24/25 forecast was 278/377 million yuan, respectively) ), +130.7%/33.8%/29.8%, respectively; selected Dingyang Technology and Kun Heng Shunwei in the scientific instrument industry; radio and television measurement in the testing industry; Oppo Optoelectronics, a robot parts company, was 26.2 times the company's average PE in 2024. Considering the rapid growth period of the company's performance and the active layout of the sensor business, the company was given a certain valuation premium, giving the 2024 target price 35 times PE. The target price was about 51.1 yuan, maintaining the “strong push” rating.
Risk warning: risk of input and output of new products and new projects; progress in domestic substitution falls short of expectations, market development falls short of expectations, risk of declining gross margin, risk of loss of core technology, etc.
