4Q23 Net profit growth accelerated and maintained buying ratings
On 4/17, the company released its annual report for the year 23, achieving revenue of 406.2 yuan (+7.7% yoy), net profit of 2.84 billion yuan (+13.6% yoy), net profit of non-return to mother of 2.74 billion yuan (+13.6% yoy), of which 4Q23 revenue +3.8% yoy, net profit from non-return to mother +25.5% yoy, net profit growth accelerated (vs 3Q23 +17.8% yoy, 2Q23 +6.7% yoy, 1Q23 + 7.2% yoy). Considering the small impact of collection in 24 years+intensive approval of innovative drugs+release of liraglutide and medical and aesthetic release at home and abroad, we expect net profit of 34.25/40.387 billion yuan to the mother in 24-26 years, with a target price of 49.67 yuan (previous value of 53.05 yuan) under the segmented valuation method.
Business is growing steadily, and industrial generic drugs are growing steadily
1) Commerce: 23 billion yuan in revenue of 26.98 billion yuan, +5.6% yoy, we expect revenue of +~ 5% yoy in 24; 2) Industry: Pharmaceutical industry revenue of 12.22 billion yuan in 23, +9.5% yoy, net profit to mother +9.6% yoy.
Looking ahead to 24 years, although Bailing capsules are no longer an exclusive product (Zolite was approved in 1M24), considering that the difference between the bid price of Bailing tablets collected by the Hubei Proprietary Chinese Medicine Alliance and the medical insurance negotiation price of Bailing capsules is small (0.95 yuan/tablet vs. 1.03 yuan/capsule), we expect that the impact of contract renewal will be limited. At the same time, considering the increase in sugar reduction contribution of Liraglutide 3M23 approval, we expect +~ 15% yoy of industrial revenue in 24 years.
Innovative drugs: 24 years will soon usher in an intensive harvest period
It is expected to launch 7 new products in 24 years, boosting estimates: 1) BCMA CAR-T: 3M24 will be approved for marketing to treat multiple myeloma. We expect 24-year revenue of ~ 100 million yuan, peak ~ 1 billion yuan; 2) FRα-ADC: 10M23 submitted for recurrent ovarian cancer BLA, we expect to be approved for marketing in 24 years, with a peak value of 15-20 billion yuan; 3) usinumada-like antibiotics: 8M23 submitted for psoriasis BLA, we expect to be approved for listing in 24 years, with a peak value of 10 to 10 billion yuan; 4) Arcalyst： 11M23/3M24 submitted cold pyridine syndrome/recurrent pericarditis BLA, we expect to be approved for marketing in 24 years; 5) PARP inhibitors: 12M23 was introduced from Yingpai Pharmaceutical, 8M23 submitted 1L for ovarian cancer to maintain NDA. We expect approval by the end of 24, with a peak of 100+ billion yuan; 6) MB-102: glomerular filtration rate monitoring, 7M22/1M24 submits marketing applications for devices and drugs. We expect to be approved for marketing at the end of 24, with a peak value of 1 billion yuan + billion yuan; 7) Maihuani:
The company's self-developed EGFR-TKI is expected to soon submit an NDA and be approved for listing by the end of '24.
Medicine and aesthetics are growing rapidly, and the amount of liraglutide is imminent. The GLP-1 series pipeline gradually became the company's medical and aesthetic revenue of 2.45 billion yuan (+27.8% yoy) in 23 years, of which: 1) Overseas: Revenue of 1.30 billion yuan (+14.5% yoy) in 24 years, we expect revenue +~ 15% yoy for 24 years; 2) Domestic: Xinckeli Aesthetics revenue of 1.05 billion yuan (+67.8% yoy), of which 4Q23 revenue is 270 million yuan (+43.6% yoy), and we expect revenue +~ 25% yoy in 24. The implementation of the GLP-1 pipeline (simeglutide clinical phase 3, GLP-1 small molecule weight loss clinical phase 2 & hypoglycemic clinical phase 1, GLP-1/GIP clinical phase 1, GLP-1/GCGR/FGF21R weight loss phase 1 clinical, approved clinical hypoglycemic, severe high triglyceride blood IND) is expected to drive continued high growth in the medical and aesthetic sector.
Risk warning: Product sales fall short of expectations, risk of product price reduction, R&D progress falling short of expectations.