火电灵活性改造需求旺盛，积极布局新兴业务。2023 年，我国火电装机容量13.90亿千瓦，同比增长 4.1%。2024年 1月，国家发展改革委、国家能源局《关于加强电网调峰储能和智能化调度能力建设的指导意见》指出，深入开展煤电机组灵活性改造，到 2027 年存量煤电机组实现“应改尽改”。 公司有望充分受益火电灵活性改造加速，带动炉渣节能环保处理系统和烟气节能环保处理系统业务发展。此外在新业务方面，2023年公司钢渣节能环保处理业务实现创新突破，并设立氢能技术测试中心，全力推进制氢、储氢等关键技术研发，抢占氢能装备发展先机。Incident: The company released its 2023 annual report. In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 1,029 billion yuan, +35.04% year over year; net profit to mother was 86.68 million yuan, +48.02% year over year.
The main business is growing steadily, and investment in R&D continues to increase. In 2023, the company's slag energy saving and environmental protection treatment system and flue gas energy saving and environmental protection treatment system business achieved total revenue of 858 million yuan, +22.75% year on year; the gross margin of the main business was 33.69%, +0.02 pct year on year. On a quarterly basis, 23Q4 achieved revenue of 517 million yuan, +24.1% year-on-year, and net profit to mother of 66.06 million yuan, or +43.9% year-on-year. In terms of expenses, the company's sales expenses, management expenses, financial expenses, and R&D expenses maintained steady growth, with +43.87%, +25.7%, and +55.25%, respectively. The increase in sales expenses and management expenses was consistent with the overall increase in the company's net profit. Thanks to the company's continued increase in R&D investment, R&D expenses increased by 18.046 million yuan over '22.
The gross margin of the steel slag business is good, and the waste heat recovery business has performed well. By product, the revenue of the dry slag removal system/wet slag removal system/low temperature flue gas waste heat deep recovery system/full load denitrification project was 290 million yuan, 190 million yuan, 250 million yuan, and 130 million yuan, respectively, +28.1%, and -25.2% year-on-year, respectively; gross margins were 33.42%, 39.52%, 28.63%, and 33.19%, respectively, compared with -1.60 pct, +1.08pct, +6.94pct, and -3.49pct; newly developed in '23 The slag treatment system achieved revenue of 92 million yuan and gross margin of 40.43%, which is higher than the company's overall gross margin level. The company's revenue growth in '23 was mainly due to a sharp increase in revenue from low-temperature flue gas waste heat deep recovery systems and the increase brought about by the steel slag treatment system business.
Demand for thermal power flexibility transformation is strong, and new businesses are being actively deployed. In 2023, China's thermal power installed capacity was 1,390 billion kilowatts, an increase of 4.1% over the previous year. In January 2024, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration's “Guiding Opinions on Strengthening Power Grid Peak Shifting Energy Storage and Intelligent Scheduling Capacity Building” stated that the flexible transformation of coal power units will be carried out in depth, and that existing coal power units “should be completely reformed” by 2027. The company is expected to fully benefit from the acceleration of thermal power flexibility transformation and drive the business development of energy saving and environmental protection treatment systems for slag and flue gas energy saving and environmental protection treatment systems. Furthermore, in terms of new business, in 2023, the company achieved an innovative breakthrough in steel slag energy saving and environmental protection treatment business, and set up a hydrogen energy technology testing center to fully promote research and development of key technologies such as hydrogen production and hydrogen storage, and seize opportunities for the development of hydrogen energy equipment.
Investment advice and valuation: According to the company's latest financial data, we adjusted the company's profit forecast. The company's revenue for 2024-2026 is expected to be 1,294 billion yuan, 1,596 million yuan, and 19.10 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 25.7%, 23.4%, and 19.6% respectively, and net profit to mother of 127 million yuan, 150 million yuan, and 187 million yuan respectively. Growth rates are 47.0%, 18.1%, and 24.1% respectively, maintaining the “increase” rating.
Risk warning: policy development falls short of expectations; risk of fluctuations in raw material prices; risk of market competition; high customer concentration
