Net profit of 320 million yuan returned to mother in '23, maintaining the “increase in holdings” rating
Real Madrid Technology released its annual report on April 17. In 2023, it achieved revenue of 1.89 billion yuan (yoy -13%), net profit to mother of 320 million yuan (yoy -32%), and deducted non-net profit of 290 million yuan (yoy -8%). Among them, Q4 achieved revenue of 490 million yuan (yoy +6%, qoq -4%) and net profit to mother of 90 million yuan (yoy -9%, qoq +7%).
The company plans to pay a cash dividend of 1.5 yuan (tax included) for every 10 shares. We expect the company to have net profit of 3.72/4.22/488 million yuan in 24-26 years, corresponding to EPS of 0.63/0.72/0.83 yuan. Compared with the company's 24-year Wind, the average PE value is 15 times higher. Considering the company's leading specialty surfactant position, we will give the company 17 times PE in 24 years, with a target price of 10.71 yuan to maintain the “gain” rating.
The product structure continues to be optimized. The gross margin was +1.2pct to 24.6% year on year. The company continued to optimize the product structure and actively explore small fields such as high-end electronic chemicals and functional new material resins. The gross margin increased year over year. In '23, the company's sales volume for small varieties/large varieties was 133/80,000 tons, with a year-on-year change of +10%/-80%, and the average sales price was 13777/7,000 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year change of -10%/-14%, respectively, achieving revenue of 1,83/60 billion yuan, a year-on-year change of -1%/-83%, and the share of small variety revenue increased 12 pct to 97% year on year. The company's comprehensive gross margin was +1.2pct to 24.6% year over year, and the period expense ratio was +0.3pct to 7.3% year over year. 23Q4 The company's comprehensive gross margin was +3.4/+0.3pct to 26.1%, and the period expense ratio was -3.2/+0.2pct to 7.2%.
Prices of raw materials have risen, and projects under construction are expected to contribute to the increase
According to Baichuan Yingfu, as of April 17, '24, the average price of propoxide in East China was 9,475 yuan/ton, +3% from the average price at the beginning of the quarter, and the price of raw materials increased. According to the 23 annual report, Real Madrid is ready to put into operation the second phase with a production capacity of 30,000 tons, and has passed the Zhejiang Future Factory certification and inspection to a high standard. Lukean continues to optimize its production capacity structure, withdraw from the production of a large variety of products in the water reducing agent sector, and further promote project investment and implementation of technical reforms. Real Madrid Kaimeike successfully started construction of the project with an annual output of 330,000 tons (phase I). The successive commissioning of projects under construction is expected to increase the company's profits.
Risk warning: There is a risk that downstream demand will continue to be sluggish, and the production progress of new projects will fall short of expectations.