Global macroscopic
Before Wednesday, the three major indices rose in unison before the market
Powell's last speech before the period of silence “The Hawk Is Loud”: Has the delay in interest rate cuts been “settled”?
On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell made the latest “hawkish” speech, and as the “quiet period” before the Fed's May monetary policy meeting is about to officially begin this weekend, the delay in the Fed's interest rate cut during the year has almost been “settled.” He said at a panel discussion that strong inflation in the first quarter brought new uncertainty about whether the Federal Reserve could lower interest rates this year without any signs of economic slowdown. His speech suggested that after the CPI data was stronger than expected for the third month in a row, the Fed's outlook had clearly changed, which seemed to have dashed hopes that the Fed might pre-emptively take action to cut interest rates.
BlackRock: The recent decline in the stock market is just a “healthy correction”. Two themed industries are worth watching
According to Kate Moore, Head of Thematic Strategy for BlackRock's Global Allocation Investment Team, the recent decline does not mean that the market is sluggish. Moore said, “I think after a very strong performance in the first quarter, a healthy pullback is right and will not change the fundamentals.” “A favorable macroeconomic environment should support higher stock market returns for the rest of the year. There's also quite a bit of upside. In other words, the market won't be easy.” Moore believes there are opportunities in the two topics BlackRock is most optimistic about: software and semiconductor companies related to artificial intelligence, and global commodity producers and mining companies, particularly copper-related companies.
Global risk appetite has peaked in nearly two years! Bank of America: Institutional holdings of stocks and commodities increased significantly
Bank of America surveyed fund managers of 224 global asset management companies from April 5 to 11, covering 638 billion US dollars in assets under management. The survey results showed that in April of this year, global risk sentiment soared to the highest level since January 2022. At the same time, there has also been a historic increase in the market allocation of commodities. Global equity exposure rose to a net increase of 34%, similar to the peak in January 2022, and hit a 27-month high. Meanwhile, the share of cash in assets under management fell to 4.2% from 4.4% last month.
The “strong dollar” storm is unstoppable in the short term! Goldman Sachs: Strong US inflation will continue to support the US dollar exchange rate
This week, against the backdrop of the strengthening of the US dollar due to the delay in interest rate cuts expected from the Federal Reserve, the global currency market was hit by a “strong dollar” storm. Especially in the Asian market, many Asian currencies, such as the yen, the Korean won, and the Indian rupee, once fell to new lows. Goldman Sachs expects that the US inflation level will continue to be unexpectedly strong, while the trend of cooling inflation in most other countries is in line with expectations. This difference will make it difficult to calm the “strong dollar” storm in the short term.
Hot news
Most of Star Technology's stocks rose before the market
Musk's $56 billion compensation plan will be voted on again
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$Shareholders will once again be allowed to vote on Musk's compensation plan after a court in Delaware in the US declared the $56 billion bonus arranged for him in 2018 invalid. The suing shareholders have criticized Musk for being overpaid and not transparent. Tesla Chairman Robin Danholm criticized the Delaware court ruling in January, saying Musk had not been paid for his work for Tesla in the past six years. The company will hold an annual general meeting of shareholders on June 13. Tesla also said it will vote on moving the company's registration from Delaware to Texas.
Asmack fell nearly 5% before the market, and Q1 net sales, new orders, and Q2 sales guidance all fell short of expectations
$ASML Holding (ASML.US)$It fell nearly 5% before the market. The company's Q1 results showed that net sales fell 21.6% year on year to 5.29 billion euros, lower than the forecast of 5.47 billion euros; net profit fell 37.4% year on year to 1.22 billion euros, exceeding expectations of 1.07 billion euros; and new orders were 3.61 billion euros, falling short of expectations of 4.63 billion euros. Sales guidance for the second quarter also fell short of expectations. Asmack expects net sales of 57-6.2 billion euros for the second quarter, an expected value of 6.46 billion euros, and a gross margin of 50%-51% for the second quarter. However, Asmat's sales growth forecast for 2024 remains unchanged, which is basically the same as the previous year.
United Airlines rose more than 6% before the market, and Q1 revenue increased by nearly 10% year-on-year, exceeding expectations. Profit guidance for the next quarter exceeded expectations
$United Airlines (UAL.US)$Revenue for the first quarter was US$12.54 billion, up 9.7% year on year, exceeding market expectations; the adjusted loss per share was $0.15, and the market expected loss of $0.58 per share; in January, due to the panel explosion of Alaska Airlines Max airliners, all Boeing 737 Max 9 aircraft grounded for three weeks. The grounding caused a loss of 200 million US dollars, turning this quarter's meager profit into a loss. In terms of guidance, earnings per share for the second quarter are expected to be between 3.75 and 4.25 US dollars, exceeding market expectations; adjusted earnings per share for the whole year are expected to be between 9 and 11 US dollars, and the market generally expects 9.43 US dollars. The stock rose more than 6% in the premarket.
Whether TSMC's stock price can continue to reach new highs after TSMC's performance, capital expenditure prospects are critical
$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$After the stock price soared to a record high, the valuation is still low, and the financial report to be released this Thursday may further push up the stock price. Some market observers believe that TSMC's sales for the first quarter are expected to exceed expectations, and that the world's largest chip foundry may raise its revenue and capital expenditure expectations for this year. Currently, TSMC's annual capital expenditure budget is 28 billion to 32 billion US dollars, and revenue is expected to increase by at least 20%, reversing a slight decline in 2023. Analysts agree that it is 29 billion US dollars.
The 10-year US Treasury yield rose above 4.5%, and Wedbush is optimistic about the US mortgage service sector
Wedbush Securities said that rising interest rates will benefit mortgage service companies, especially if the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury rises above 4.5%. Wedbush Securities said mortgage service companies benefit from an environment where interest rates remain high for a longer period of time. This section includes$Mr. Cooper Group (COOP.US)$,$PennyMac Financial Services (PFSI.US)$,$Rithm Capital (RITM.US)$.
Focus on China Securities
Most popular Chinese securities rose before the market
Top 20 pre-market turnover of US stocks
US Stock Macro Calendar Reminder
(The following are all Beijing time)
22:30 US EIA crude oil inventory for the week from April 12
US 20-year Treasury bond auction at 01:00 the next day to April 17 - bid interest rate
At 02:00 the next day, the Federal Reserve announced the Beige Book on the state of the economy
At 05:30 the next day, 2024 FOMC Voting Committee and Cleveland Federal Reserve Chairman Meister delivered a speech
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