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What McEwen Mining Inc.'s (NYSE:MUX) 28% Share Price Gain Is Not Telling You

Simply Wall St ·  Apr 17 19:13

McEwen Mining Inc. (NYSE:MUX) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 28% gain in the last month alone. Looking further back, the 20% rise over the last twelve months isn't too bad notwithstanding the strength over the last 30 days.

Following the firm bounce in price, when almost half of the companies in the United States' Metals and Mining industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 1.3x, you may consider McEwen Mining as a stock probably not worth researching with its 3.3x P/S ratio. However, the P/S might be high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

ps-multiple-vs-industry
NYSE:MUX Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry April 17th 2024

How McEwen Mining Has Been Performing

McEwen Mining certainly has been doing a good job lately as its revenue growth has been positive while most other companies have been seeing their revenue go backwards. It seems that many are expecting the company to continue defying the broader industry adversity, which has increased investors' willingness to pay up for the stock. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on McEwen Mining.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/S?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, McEwen Mining would need to produce impressive growth in excess of the industry.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew revenue by an impressive 51% last year. Pleasingly, revenue has also lifted 59% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been superb for the company.

Looking ahead now, revenue is anticipated to slump, contracting by 2.2% during the coming year according to the three analysts following the company. Meanwhile, the broader industry is forecast to expand by 8.2%, which paints a poor picture.

In light of this, it's alarming that McEwen Mining's P/S sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company reject the analyst cohort's pessimism and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a very good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the negative growth outlook.

What Does McEwen Mining's P/S Mean For Investors?

The large bounce in McEwen Mining's shares has lifted the company's P/S handsomely. Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

For a company with revenues that are set to decline in the context of a growing industry, McEwen Mining's P/S is much higher than we would've anticipated. In cases like this where we see revenue decline on the horizon, we suspect the share price is at risk of following suit, bringing back the high P/S into the realms of suitability. At these price levels, investors should remain cautious, particularly if things don't improve.

You need to take note of risks, for example - McEwen Mining has 3 warning signs (and 2 which make us uncomfortable) we think you should know about.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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