Three Squirrels (300783) 2024 Quarterly Report Review: Q1 performance increased 61%, high-end cost performance continues to lead

事件

公司公告2024 一季报。24Q1，公司实现总营收36.46 亿元，同比+91.83%，归母净利3.08亿元，同比+60.80%，扣非归母净利2.63 亿元，同比+92.84%。

24Q1 公司收入、利润持续改善

1）高端性价比总战略引领下，公司收入、利润持续改善。24Q1，公司总营收/ 归母净利同比增速分别为91.83%/60.80% ，同比分别+130.31/+42.07pct，环比分别+62.65/+21.07pct。

2）公司多渠道表现亮眼。24Q1 公司延续23 年变革成效，通过“抖+N”实现短视频营收、占比大幅提高，带动全渠道销售增长，持续重点布局分销，心智品类礼包在年货节全渠道热卖。

核心品类毛利率保持稳定，非经收益金额较大1）公司净利率小幅降低。24Q1，公司净利率为8.46%，同比-1.63pct，净利率小幅降低主要是毛利率小幅下行和非经收益占总营收比重下降影响。

2）高端性价比转型下，公司毛利率基本稳定。24Q1，公司毛利率为27.40%，同比-0.87pct，高端性价比引领下，公司终端产品更具性价比，而通过“一品一链”新供给体系，公司在产品高性价比同时，核心品类毛利率保持稳定。

3）公司管理费用率下降带动期间费用率优化。24Q1，公司销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别为16.26%/1.33%/0.15%/0.06%，同比分别+1.08/-1.86/-0.16/-0.02pct，公司通过“品销合一”协同组织有效降低管理费率。

4）公司非经收益金额及占比较大。24Q1，公司非经收益0.45 亿元，同比-18.46%，占总营收的1.23%，同比-1.67pct，其中计入当期损益的政府补助0.55 亿元，同比-22.29%。

“高端性价比”战略牵引内外部变革，构建“全品类+全渠道”基本盘公司坚持“高端性价比”总战略，坚守“全品类、全渠道”经营方式，坚定“制造型自有品牌零售商”商业模式：

1）公司在行业内率先提出“高端性价比”战略，对全链路、全要素整合重组，实现产品更高品质，更有差异化、价格更亲民。

2）公司深耕坚果领域，同时构建全品类基本盘，全面进入坚果品类自主制造，并向原料产地渗透，实现全链路成本优化，聚焦大单品打造和改造升级。

3）公司在视频电商领域构建闭环矩阵，综合电商领域积极调整品类结构和损益模型，分销领域向日销品渗透，社区店单店模型初步跑通并持续优化。

投资建议

我们预计公司24/25/26 年归母净利分别为3.54/4.64/5.89 亿元，增速61.19%/30.87%/26.99%，对应4 月16 日PE 26/20/16 倍（市值92 亿元），维持“增持”评级。

风险提示

食品安全风险、线上竞争加剧风险、线下渠道拓展不及预期风险。

occurrences

The company announced its 2024 quarterly report. In 24Q1, the company achieved total revenue of 3,646 billion yuan, +91.83% year-on-year, net profit to mother of 308 million yuan, +60.80% year-on-year, net profit of non-return to mother 263 million yuan, or +92.84% year-on-year.

24Q1 The company's revenue and profit continued to improve

1) Under the leadership of the overall strategy of high-end cost performance, the company's revenue and profit continued to improve. In 24Q1, the company's total revenue/net profit growth rates were 91.83%/60.80%, respectively, +130.31/+42.07pct year-on-year, and +62.65/+21.07pct, respectively.

2) The company's multi-channel performance is outstanding. The 24Q1 company continued the results of 23 years of transformation. Through “Shake+N”, the company achieved a significant increase in short video revenue and share, driving omni-channel sales growth, and continuing to focus on distribution. Mind category gift packages are popular in all channels during the New Year Festival.

The gross margin of the core categories remained stable, and the net interest rate of the company declined slightly even though the amount of revenue was large 1). In 24Q1, the company's net interest rate was 8.46%, -1.63pct year on year. The slight decrease in net interest rate was mainly due to a slight decline in gross margin and a decline in revenue as a share of total revenue.

2) Under the transformation of high-end cost performance, the company's gross margin is basically stable. In 24Q1, the company's gross margin was 27.40%, -0.87pct year on year. Under the leadership of high-end cost performance, the company's terminal products were more cost-effective, and through the new “one product, one chain” supply system, the company maintained a stable gross margin for core categories while the products were highly cost-effective.

3) The reduction in the company's management fee rate led to the optimization of the cost rate during the period. In 24Q1, the company's sales/management/R&D/finance expenses rates were 16.26%/1.33%/0.15%/0.06%, respectively, +1.08/-1.86/-0.16/ -0.02pct, respectively. The company effectively reduced the management rate through “integrated quality and sales” collaborative organization.

4) The amount and share of the company's non-revenue is relatively large. In 24Q1, the company's non-revenue was 45 million yuan, -18.46% year-on-year, accounting for 1.23% of total revenue, or -1.67pct year-on-year, of which 55 million yuan of government subsidies were included in current profit and loss, or -22.29% year-on-year.

The “high-end cost performance” strategy drives internal and external changes, builds an “all-category+omni-channel” basic market. The company adheres to the overall strategy of “high-end cost performance”, adheres to the “all-category, omni-channel” business method, and resolves the “manufacturing private brand retailer” business model:

1) The company took the lead in proposing a “high-end cost performance” strategy in the industry, integrating and restructuring the full link and all elements to achieve higher quality, more differentiated and more affordable products.

2) The company is deeply involved in the field of nuts, while building a basic market for all categories, fully entering independent manufacturing of the nut category, and penetrating into the production area of raw materials to optimize the cost of the whole chain, and focus on the construction and transformation and upgrading of large single products.

3) The company built a closed-loop matrix in the field of video e-commerce, actively adjusted the category structure and profit and loss model in the comprehensive e-commerce field, penetrated into Japanese products in the distribution sector, and initially implemented and continuously optimized the single-store model for community stores.

Investment advice

We expect the company's net profit to be 3.54/489 million yuan in 24/25/26, respectively, with a growth rate of 61.19%/30.87%/26.99%, corresponding to 26/20/16 times PE on April 16 (market value of 9.2 billion yuan), maintaining the “increase” rating.

Risk warning

Food safety risks, increased risk of online competition, and offline channel expansion falling short of expectations.

The translation is provided by third-party software.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.

三只松鼠(300783)2024一季报点评：Q1业绩增61% 高端性价比持续引领

Three Squirrels (300783) 2024 Quarterly Report Review: Q1 performance increased 61%, high-end cost performance continues to lead

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