The Zhitong Finance App learned that according to a research report released by Tianfeng Securities, the global/Chinese PEEK consumption in 2022 is about 7556/2334 tons, and is expected to reach 12929/4358 tons in 2027, with a CAGR of +11.38%/+13.30%. On the supply side, the world's total production capacity is 16,000 tons in 2022. The top three production companies account for 80% of global production capacity, and they are all foreign companies; domestic production capacity is 6050 tons in 2022, and production capacity is expected to increase to 6,950 tons in 2023 (the increase is due to the commissioning of the Walter Co., Ltd. project). Overall, the PEEK industry as a whole shows that supply exceeds demand, and there is a clear trend of domestic substitution. Optimus-Gen2 successfully applies PEEK materials, and if mass production is successful in the future, it may effectively drive the growth of PEEK demand.

Tianfeng Securities's views are as follows:

AI empowers humanoid robots, or starts the first year of industrialization

In December 2023, Tesla released the humanoid robot OptimusGen2, which has a 30% increase in walking speed and a weight reduction of 10 kg compared to its predecessor; in March 2024, Figure01, the world's first robot supported by the OpenAI model was released, which can achieve dialogue and interaction with humans; the rapid development of AI models promotes continuous progress in the development of humanoid robot technology. AI empowers humanoid robots, and the industrialization of the industry accelerates. Domestically, the policy continues to be heavily supported, and the amount of investment and financing in the industry is also on the rise. According to MarketsAndMarkets, the global humanoid robot market is 1.8 billion US dollars in 2023, and is expected to reach 13.8 billion US dollars in 2028, with a CAGR of 50.2%. In terms of production volume, according to estimates of 20,000 US dollars (about 140,000 yuan) per unit, the world is expected to ship 690,000 units in 2028; judging from the two dimensions of migrant workers in China (replacing 10%) and the number of construction workers (replacing 80%), the corresponding shipment volume is estimated to be 30 to 40 million units, and the market size may reach 4.2 and 5.6 trillion yuan.

Carbon fiber is lightweight and strong to improve robot safety and work efficiency

When humanoid robots are made lightweight, they can improve mobility and work efficiency, reduce motion inertia, and thereby improve robot safety. Because carbon fiber is lightweight and strong, carbon fiber has been used many times in the field of bionic bone at home and abroad, such as the rehabilitation exoskeleton robot EKSonR and the wearable robot AssistSuiteAwn-03. Domestic agency related products prove that the overall quality of robotic arms made of carbon fiber composites is reduced by 30% compared to aluminum alloy. As a result, the center of gravity of the boom has been reduced by 10%, vibration has been reduced by 40%, and accuracy has been increased from 0.03mm to 0.01mm. Safety, stability and work efficiency have been effectively improved.

The trend of replacing PEEK in domestic production is obvious, and Tesla's robot application of PEEK brings new demand

Global/China's PEEK consumption in 2022 is about 7556/2334 tons, and is expected to reach 12929/4358 tons in 2027, CAGR +11.38%/+13.30%. On the supply side, the total global production capacity is 16,000 tons in 2022. The top three production companies account for 80% of global production capacity, and they are all foreign companies; domestic production capacity is 6050 tons in 2022, and production capacity is expected to increase to 6,950 tons in 2023 (the increase is due to the commissioning of the Walter Co., Ltd. Project). Overall, the PEEK industry as a whole showed an oversupply and a clear trend of domestic substitution. Optimus-Gen2 successfully applied PEEK materials, reducing weight by 10 kg and increasing walking speed by 30%. If mass production is successful in the future, it may effectively drive the growth of PEEK demand.

CF/PEEK or the core material for humanoid robots, PEEK requires greater flexibility

Carbon fiber-reinforced PEEK composite (CF/PEEK) refers to a composite material in which carbon fiber reinforces PEEK resin in the form of powder, granules, continuous fiber (long fiber) or fabric, and has better thermoplasticity and higher strength while reducing weight. Currently, CF/PEEK production technology is controlled by a few companies, such as Toray in Japan and Victrex in the UK, and mainly relies on imports domestically. CF/PEEK is mainly used in robotic arms. According to the bank's estimates: 1) reference robot production volume (estimated global shipment of 690,000 units in 2028), corresponding carbon fiber/PEEK demand is 3795/3105 tons; 2) to replace 10% of China's migrant workers (estimated shipment of 30 million units), corresponding carbon fiber/PEEK demand is 165/135,000 tons; 3) to replace 80% of the number of people in China's construction industry (estimated shipment of 40 million units), corresponding carbon fiber/PEEK demand is 220/180,000 tons. Referring to the 2022 carbon fiber/peek demand of 135000/7560 tons, the bank believes that mass production of humanoid robots will strongly drive demand in the PEEK industry.

Related targets:

Carbon fiber-related companies: Guangwei Composite (300699.SZ) (products cover military and civilian fibers, composites, etc.), Zhongfu Condor (688295.SH) (high-performance fiber), etc.; PEEK-related companies: China Research (688716.SH) (the largest domestic PEEK production), Walter (002886.SZ) (both PEEK and PEKK are involved), Kaisheng New Materials (301069.SZ) (PEKK manufacturer), Xinhan New Materials (301076.SZ) (PEEK raw material fluorone producer), etc..

Risk warning: The mass production progress of humanoid robots fell short of expectations, carbon fiber and PEEK prices declined, carbon fiber and PEEK production capacity expansion exceeded expectations, humanoid robots used other materials, etc.