再融资定增项目开启，盈利能力或上新台阶：公司再融资定增项目“新能源汽车零部件智能制造项目”当前已正式启动，中大型压铸设备投入再加大，计划购买3,000T-9,000T 不等的先进中大型精益压铸单元。我们判断，新能源产品品类进一步丰富或提升公司在全球汽车铝合金零部件市场的竞争力，公司有望凭借自身压铸优势快速形成新业务工艺及成本优势，长期单车配套价值量和毛利率均将受益抬升。2023 Results Disclosure: 2023 revenue +30.73% YoY to RMB 2,020 billion, gross margin -1.61pcts YoY to 22.15%, net profit to mother +9.24% YoY to RMB 146 million. Among them, 4Q23 revenue was +19.37% /month-on-month +13.15% to 585 million yuan, gross margin -5.68 pcts/ -6.25pcts month-on-month to 18.24%, and net profit to mother -27.72%/-26.36% month-on-month to 31 million yuan. The company's revenue performance was basically in line with expectations. In our judgment, the year-on-month decline in net profit attributable to mother was mainly affected by one-time factors such as impairment accruals.
New energy+overseas business development is accelerating, and revenue growth can be expected: 1) New energy business: The company adheres to the “steering system+new energy vehicle” product positioning. In addition to maintaining a leading position in the field of electric steering chassis, it continues to increase the development of new energy vehicle three-electric system+ body structural components. The sales revenue share of NEV products has increased to 24% in 2023, and the new energy business or driving performance has been growing for a long time. 2) Overseas business:
The company went overseas early. In 2023, Leon Rongtai's revenue increased 34% year-on-year to 370 million yuan. On 2024/4/10, the company announced an investment of 400 million yuan to build a factory in Thailand, or further increase supply stickiness with world-renowned parts suppliers and OEMs. We judge that the net loss of the Mexican factory is expected to gradually recover as operations improve, and as the company continues to expand its new energy product categories and production capacity climbs in overseas factories, the value of the company's revenue+supporting bikes is expected to continue to grow.
A fixed refinancing project has started, and profitability may reach a new level: The company's fixed refinancing project “Intelligent Manufacturing Project for New Energy Vehicle Parts” has now been officially launched. Investment in medium and large die-casting equipment has been further increased, and it is planned to purchase advanced medium to large lean die-casting units ranging from 3,000T-9,000T. We judge that the new energy product category will further enrich or enhance the company's competitiveness in the global automotive aluminum alloy parts market. The company is expected to use its die-casting advantages to quickly form a new business process and cost advantage, and long-term bicycle support value and gross margin will benefit.
Maintaining a “buy” rating: In view of the high uncertainty of overseas Mexican factories, we lowered 2024E/2025E net profit by 11%/13% to mother to RMB 255 million/RMB 321 million. We forecast 2026E net profit to mother of RMB 422 million. We are optimistic about the transformation of the company's new energy business and the ability to obtain new orders from overseas, raising the target price to RMB 27.55 (corresponding to 20x 2024E PE), and maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: International trade frictions and policy risks, the company's overseas factory production capacity is falling short of expectations, annual decline risks, exchange rate fluctuations, upstream raw material prices fluctuate, and downstream automobile demand falls short of expectations.
