Chicago soybean futures prices hovered above a four-year low on Wednesday due to the strengthening of the US dollar and declining competitiveness of US soybeans in a market full of cheap supplies from South America.

Wheat and corn opened slightly higher, after Ukraine, an important supplier, predicted a decline in grain production this year, although both contracts were close to their lowest levels since 2020 due to sufficient supply.

As of 08:40 Beijing time, the main contract for Sv1 soybeans on the Chicago Futures Exchange (CBOT) rose 0.1% to $11.4625 per bushel, but the price has dropped nearly 4% this month, close to the four-year low of $11.29 set in February.

cBot wheat Wv1 posted early trading gains, falling 0.1% to $5.6425 per bushel, while corn Cv1 rose 0.2% to $4.3175 per bushel.

Changes in CBOT positions

According to observations, the results of overseas traders' estimates show that this Tuesday (April 16), commodity funds increased speculative net short positions on CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, corn, rice wheat, and soybean oil. In the last 30 trading days, commodity funds increased their speculative net short positions in soybeans, soybean oil, soybean meal, corn, and meimai.

The US dollar has soared since last week, rising to its highest level since November 1 against a basket of currencies on Wednesday, making US agricultural products more expensive for importers.

US suppliers face intense competition from South American corn and soybeans and Russian wheat in global export sales.

The oilseed lobbying group Abiove raised its forecast for Brazil's soybean production in 2023 and stocks at the beginning of this year, emphasizing sufficient supply.

Brazil is the world's largest exporter of soybeans. Although production is expected to drop slightly this year, production in Argentina is likely to increase.

In terms of other crops, the Ministry of Agriculture of Ukraine said that the country's grain production this year may drop from 58 million tons in 2023 to about 52 million tons, mainly due to the small estimated planting area. The Ministry predicts that this year's corn production will be 27 million tons, wheat 19 million tons, and barley 5 million tons, while 2023 will produce about 28 million tons of corn, 22.5 million tons of wheat, and 5.9 million tons of barley.

According to data and estimates, wheat production in Germany and France may also decline this year.

However, the Russian Minister of Agriculture said that the floods did not seriously affect the production of agricultural companies. Russia is the world's largest exporter of wheat.

Traders said the lowest offshore price proposed in Egypt's national wheat procurement tender on Tuesday was $218.90 per ton, with a purchase volume of 60,000 tons of Ukrainian wheat.

In terms of corn, an official from Brazilian crop agency Deral said that in the next revision, estimates for the second batch of corn harvest in Brazil's second-largest corn producing state, Parana, may be lowered.

At the same time,Crop consultant Michael Cordonnier (Michael Cordonnier) said he lowered Argentina's corn production forecast by 3 million tons to 50 million tons due to corn dwarfism spread by leaf cicadas.

The base price gap for soybeans in the Gulf of Mexico falls

Traders said the Chicago Futures Exchange (CBOT) soybean futures price fell on Tuesday due to the strengthening of the US dollar and competition from overseas, and the base price of soybeans exported by barge to the US Gulf Coast declined.

At the same time,The broker said basic bids for corn shipped by barge to the Gulf of Me****mained stable or rose slightly.

According to a shipping source, freight rates for spot barges at St. Louis Station on the Mississippi River, the Illinois River, the lower Ohio River, and other inland rivers all dropped that day.

The trader said,Corn barge bids continue to struggle to gain momentum as buyers switch to cheaper new crop grains from South America.

The CIF base bid for the corn barge loaded in April was 1 cent higher than the Chicago Futures Exchange's May CK24 futures, to 45 cents. Barge bids also rose 1 cent to 51 cents in May.

The rise in corn exports in April was generally stable, 53 cents higher than the May futures, while the rise in corn exports in May was 55 cents higher than futures.

CIF soybean barges loaded in April traded 43 cents higher than the May futures SK24 price, while soybean barges loaded in May traded 53 cents higher than futures prices.

The price of a CIF Gulf of Mexico soybean barge loaded in April was 2 cents lower than the May futures SK24 to 42 cents, while the price of a soybean barge loaded in May was 52 cents higher than the futures.

Soybean exports in the Gulf of Me****mained stable at 63 cents compared to May futures in April, while the rise in soybean exports in May was 59 cents compared to futures.