盈利预测与投资建议。预计24-26 年公司EPS 分别为1.52、1.70、1.75 港元，假设转型升级项目释放期为24-30 年，后续将按照四个留存地块的规划面积逐年释放收益，且公司分红比例维持在50%，使用DDM 模型测算公司合理价值为9.60 港元/股，首次覆盖，给予“买入”评级。Core views:
Operating and financial data: The company announced its 2023 results. In 2023, Shenzhen International achieved revenue of HK$20.524 billion, +32.16%; realized net profit to mother of HK$1,902 million, +51.66% year over year; realized profit per share of HK$0.80 per share, +48.15% YoY. The board of directors of the company recommended a dividend of HK$0.40 per share, +55.64% year over year, with a dividend ratio of 50%.
Toll road profits have been repaired, and logistics parks have been transformed and upgraded to release profits. In 2023, the toll road and environmental protection business achieved revenue of HK$10.325 billion, -4.17% year on year; net profit of HK$1,005 billion to mother, +54.40% year over year. Against the backdrop of restorative growth in traffic, the toll road business's profit was repaired. The logistics park's revenue reached HK$1,519 million, -3.48% year on year; net profit attributable to mother was HK$524 million, or -63.05% year-on-year, mainly due to one-time revenue generated by the issuance of REITs in '22. Logistics service revenue reached HK$319 million, -18.10% YoY; realized net profit to mother of HK$09 million, -9.49% YoY. The transformation and upgrading of the logistics park achieved revenue of HK$5.556 billion, compared to HK$30 billion in 2022; realized net profit of HK$1,746 billion, or -39% over the same period last year. The Qianhai Yicheng Qiwanli Project was registered to release profits. The port's revenue was HK$2,805 million, +1.56% YoY; net profit attributable to mother was HK$88 million, or -14.56% YoY.
Profit forecasting and investment advice. The company's EPS is expected to be HK$1.52, 1.70, and HK$1.75 respectively in 24-26. Assuming that the release period of the transformation and upgrading project is 24-30 years, revenue will be released year by year according to the planned area of the four remaining plots, and the company's dividend ratio will remain at 50%. Using the DDM model, the reasonable value of the company is estimated at HK$9.60 per share, covering the first time, giving it a “buy” rating.
Risk warning. The implementation of the transformation and upgrading project fell short of expectations, the impact of toll road renovation and expansion was uncertain, the occupancy rate of the logistics park being operated fell short of expectations, risks caused by fluctuations in interest rates and exchange rates, and the liquidity risk of Hong Kong stocks.
