occurrences
On April 13, the company disclosed the 2023 performance report and the first quarter results forecast for 2024:
It is expected to achieve revenue of 22.079 billion yuan in 23, +50.32% year over year, net profit to mother of 38.99 billion yuan, +65.73% year on year, net profit of non-return to mother of 3,581 billion yuan, or +70.05% year over year.
It is estimated that 24Q1 will achieve revenue of 54.20-6420 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.01%-61.19%, net profit attributable to mother of 1,040-1,200 million yuan, an increase of 75.77%-102.81% year-on-year, after deducting net profit of 990-1,140 million yuan, an increase of 85.46%-113.56% year on year.
Key points of investment
Steady rise in market share drives steady revenue growth. The company expects to achieve revenue of 22.079 billion yuan in 23, +50.32% year on year, net profit to mother of 38.99 billion yuan, +65.73% year on year, net profit of 3,581 billion yuan after deducting net profit of non-return to mother, +70.05% year on year. It is estimated that 24Q1 will achieve revenue of 54.20-6420 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.01%-61.19%, net profit attributable to mother of 1,040-1,200 million yuan, an increase of 75.77%-102.81% year-on-year, after deducting net profit of 990-1,140 million yuan, an increase of 85.46%-113.56% year on year. Main line 1) The company continues to focus on its main business, scrutinize customer needs, deepen technology research and development, and continuously improve its core competitiveness. The market share of the company's process equipment such as etching, film deposition, cleaning, and furnace tubes used in the field of integrated circuits has steadily increased, and revenue has increased steadily over the same period last year. 2) As the scale of the company's revenue continues to expand, the scale effect gradually became apparent, and the cost ratio declined steadily, causing net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies to maintain year-on-year growth.
Leading platform-based companies continue to benefit from a wave of production expansion. The company signed more than 30 billion yuan of new orders in '23, of which the integrated circuit sector accounted for more than 70%, mainly because the company always insisted on customer needs-oriented product innovation. In '23, the main business showed a good development trend, and market recognition continued to increase. Dozens of process equipment such as etching, film, cleaning, and furnace tubes used in the high-end integrated circuit field achieved technological breakthroughs and mass production applications, and the process coverage and market share increased dramatically. On March 19, California time, the “300mm Fab 2027 Outlook Report” released by SEMI shows that under the impetus of government incentives and chip localization policies, China will maintain an annual investment scale of more than 30 billion US dollars over the next four years and continue to lead global fab equipment spending. As a leading platform-based enterprise, with the advantages of core process equipment such as etching+film+cleaning+furnace tube equipment, the company is expected to continue to obtain high new orders in a new round of production expansion, adding to the increase in profitability brought about by scale effects, and the company's future performance is expected to continue to maintain a high growth trend.
Investment advice
We expect the company to achieve revenue of 221/302/40 billion yuan in 2023/2024/2025, and realized net profit of 39/57/78 billion yuan, respectively. The current stock price corresponding to 2023-2025 PE is 43 times, 29 times, and 21 times, respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
Risk of external environmental uncertainty; risk of technology iteration; risk of human resources; risk of downstream production expansion falling short of expectations.