There's been a notable change in appetite for Beijing SuperMap Software Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300036) shares in the week since its yearly report, with the stock down 12% to CN¥15.10. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of CN¥2.0b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 31% to hit CN¥0.31 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Following the latest results, Beijing SuperMap Software's four analysts are now forecasting revenues of CN¥2.43b in 2024. This would be a major 23% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 92% to CN¥0.59. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥2.47b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.71 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a real cut to EPS estimates.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target fell 7.4% to CN¥25.16, with the analysts clearly linking lower forecast earnings to the performance of the stock price. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Beijing SuperMap Software analyst has a price target of CN¥28.31 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥22.00. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Beijing SuperMap Software is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Beijing SuperMap Software's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Beijing SuperMap Software's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 23% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 3.1% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 21% annually. Beijing SuperMap Software is expected to grow at about the same rate as its industry, so it's not clear that we can draw any conclusions from its growth relative to competitors.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Beijing SuperMap Software's future valuation.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Beijing SuperMap Software going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.