核心业务均有所下滑，费用率同比增长。分业务来看，2023 年公司系统设计开发收入7.52 亿元，同比-22%，毛利率35%，同比下降14.9pct；数据分析应用服务收入10.48 亿元，同比-29%，毛利率36%，同比下降10.9pct；自有软件销售收入0.19 亿元，同比增长82%，毛利率91%，同比下降6.1pct。公司2023 年毛利率35.92%，同比下降13.74pct。整体来看，公司2023 年销售费用率14.49%（同比+4.85pct），管理费用率15.26%（同比+4.46pct），研发费用率21.03%（同比+9pct）；公司整体费用较上年同期增加较多，一方面是公司在年初时对全年的市场预期较高，根据长远发展规划进行了持续投入；另一方面，公司外部融资增加导致财务费用大幅增加。2023 年经营活动产生的现金流量净额-8.70 亿元，主要系支付职工薪酬及采购款增加较多，经营性支出大于收款所致。Incident: Aerospace Hongtu released its 2023 annual report. In 2023, it achieved revenue of 1,819 billion yuan, down 25.98% year on year; net profit to mother was 374 million yuan, down 241.51% year on year, slightly lower than market expectations.
Key points of investment
Project bidding was delayed, and the 23-year performance was under pressure: the company's Q4 revenue in 2023 was 232 million yuan, down 78.18% year on year, and net profit to mother - 334 million yuan, down 283.99% year on year, and short-term performance was under pressure. The decline in the company's performance is mainly due to the fact that the company's customers are concentrated in the government, large state-owned enterprises and special fields. Due to pressure from the macroeconomic environment and the suspension of the company's bidding qualifications at the military mining network, the bidding process for some projects was delayed, and the amount of new orders signed by the company declined; at the same time, due to delays in acceptance of some projects, the company's revenue declined year-on-year. 3) Due to pressure from the macroeconomic environment, some customer repayments fell short of expectations, and accrued credit impairment losses increased compared to the previous period.
Core businesses have all declined, and expense ratios have increased year over year. By business, in 2023, the company's system design and development revenue was 752 million yuan, -22% year-on-year, with a gross profit margin of 35%, a year-on-year decrease of 14.9pct; data analysis application service revenue was 1,048 million yuan, -29% year-on-year, gross profit margin 36%, down 10.9pct; self-owned software sales revenue was 0.19 million yuan, up 82% year on year, gross profit margin was 91% year on year, down 6.1 pct year on year. The company's gross profit margin in 2023 was 35.92%, a year-on-year decrease of 13.74 pcts. Overall, the company's sales expense ratio in 2023 was 14.49% (+4.85pct year on year), management expense ratio was 15.26% (year-on-year +4.46pct), and R&D expenses rate was 21.03% (year-on-year +9pct); the company's overall expenses increased a lot compared to the same period last year. On the one hand, the company had high market expectations for the whole year at the beginning of the year and continued investment in accordance with long-term development plans; on the other hand, the increase in the company's external financing led to a significant increase in financial expenses. The net cash flow from operating activities in 2023 - $870 million, was mainly due to a significant increase in employee remuneration payments and procurement payments, and operating expenses greater than receipts.
Data elements are making great strides: The company adheres to the satellite application industry chain layout and development strategy and has built a high-precision commercial radar remote sensing satellite constellation. It has successfully launched 4 high-resolution commercial radar satellites in 2023, and is expected to launch at least 12 high-resolution commercial radar satellites in 2024. At that time, the company will become the enterprise with the largest number of commercial radar remote sensing satellites in China and the world, achieving high-precision topographic mapping, high-resolution wide-range imaging, deformation detection, and three-dimensional stereoscopic imaging capabilities.
Autonomous data sources will link with existing remote sensing cloud platform facilities to establish a closed commercial loop from data to information to knowledge, and open a second curve of cloud service growth. At the same time, driven by the country's “Belt and Road” policy, the company actively lays out overseas markets and carries out international business in accordance with the idea of “relying on traditional markets and developing emerging markets”.
Profit forecast and investment rating: Considering the impact of the company's project bidding pace, we lowered the company's 2024-2025 EPS forecast from 1.81/2.67 yuan to 0.61/110 million yuan, and the 2026 EPS forecast is 1.62 yuan. It is expected that as orders from downstream customers resume, the company is expected to take the lead in benefiting and maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Satellite constellation construction falls short of expectations; technology research and development falls short of expectations; downstream application demand falls short of expectations.
