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Why Investors Shouldn't Be Surprised By Changqing Machinery Company Limited's (SHSE:603768) 28% Share Price Plunge

Simply Wall St ·  Apr 17 06:26

The Changqing Machinery Company Limited (SHSE:603768) share price has fared very poorly over the last month, falling by a substantial 28%. The drop over the last 30 days has capped off a tough year for shareholders, with the share price down 17% in that time.

Following the heavy fall in price, Changqing Machinery's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 18.4x might make it look like a buy right now compared to the market in China, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios above 30x and even P/E's above 54x are quite common. However, the P/E might be low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

Changqing Machinery certainly has been doing a great job lately as it's been growing earnings at a really rapid pace. It might be that many expect the strong earnings performance to degrade substantially, which has repressed the P/E. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.

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SHSE:603768 Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry April 16th 2024
Although there are no analyst estimates available for Changqing Machinery, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

How Is Changqing Machinery's Growth Trending?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as low as Changqing Machinery's is when the company's growth is on track to lag the market.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew earnings per share by an impressive 38% last year. Pleasingly, EPS has also lifted 74% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been superb for the company.

This is in contrast to the rest of the market, which is expected to grow by 36% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.

In light of this, it's understandable that Changqing Machinery's P/E sits below the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are expecting to see the recent limited growth rates continue into the future and are only willing to pay a reduced amount for the stock.

What We Can Learn From Changqing Machinery's P/E?

The softening of Changqing Machinery's shares means its P/E is now sitting at a pretty low level. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

As we suspected, our examination of Changqing Machinery revealed its three-year earnings trends are contributing to its low P/E, given they look worse than current market expectations. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in earnings isn't great enough to justify a higher P/E ratio. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it's hard to see the share price rising strongly in the near future under these circumstances.

Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Changqing Machinery (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable) you should be aware of.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Changqing Machinery, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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