FUTU Morning Post

US Stock Outlook | Wall Street Warns! US dividends are piling up, and the decline is expected to continue

Futu News · Apr 16 20:47

全球宏观

周二盘前，三大期指集体上涨

华尔街纷纷预警！美股利空积聚，跌势料将持续

花旗策略师Chris Montagu表示，随着投资者抛售大量期货多头头寸，美国股市的任何进一步疲软都可能加剧；标普500指数有520亿美元的多头头寸，其中88%处于亏损状态，策略师认为这是市场面临的风险。摩根大通策略师则警告称，不要指望乐观的企业财报季会推动美国股市走高，因为在今年创纪录的上涨之后，大部分乐观情绪已经被消化了。摩根士丹利策略师Michael Wilson同样就更高利率对股票估值的影响发出了警告。

MSCI全球股指4月已累跌4%，RSI接近超卖水平

在本月风险资产遭遇抛售后，一项全球基准股指急剧下跌，接近超卖水平。MSCI全球指数的14天相对强弱指数周二跌破33，降至去年10月以来的水平。如果该指数低于30，则表明市场动能可能出现逆转，因为抛售可能已经过度。该指数4月份累计下跌近4%，有望创下去年10月以来的首次单月跌幅，原因是美联储的宽松押注力度减弱，以及中东冲突不断升级削弱了股市的吸引力。

什么信号？美联储鸽派票委不再提年内将降息三次！

旧金山联储主席戴利在美东时间周一重申，美联储并不急于调整利率，她指出，经济增长稳健，就业市场强劲，通胀依然居高不下。就在两周前，戴利还表示，今年三次降息将是“合理的”。她在周一没有重申这一观点，也没有就她可能准备好考虑降息的时间给出任何明确的信号，只是说她需要确信通胀正朝着2%的方向发展。

美联储料推迟降息，美元指数有望创一年来最大单周涨幅

对美国利率将在更长时间内保持在高位的预期日益增强促使投资者大举买入美元，美元有望创下一年多来的最大单周涨幅。周二，Bloomberg美元指数连续第五个交易日走高，至去年11月以来的最高水平。荷兰国际集团外汇策略主管Chris Turner表示：“现在很难对抗美元的牛市趋势。”他表示，Bloomberg美元指数可能会再攀升1.2%，至1280点，这将是去年10月以来的最高水平。

花旗看好金价：未来6-18个月或升至3000美元/盎司

由于中东地区的政治紧张局势加剧，以及市场对经济前景的普遍担忧，黄金的价格和需求都有显著上升。花旗集团的分析师们对黄金的未来持乐观态度，他们预测，在未来6至18个月内，黄金价格可能会达到每盎司3,000美元。花旗分析师表示，黄金已与美国利率和美元脱钩，表明包括强劲的实物消费和央行购买在内的因素正在支撑市场。花旗将其对2024年和2025年黄金价格的预测分别上调6.8%至2350美元/盎司和40%至2875美元/盎司。

热点要闻

明星科技股盘前涨跌不一

特斯拉盘前跌超2%，继全球裁员10%后马斯克核心副手宣布辞职

$特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$美股盘前跌超2%，报158.065美元。继昨日特斯拉内部信宣布全球裁员10%之后，特斯拉核心高管、动力总成及能源工程高级副总裁德鲁·巴格利诺(Drew Baglino)在社交媒体平台确认离开效力18年的公司。有消息称特斯拉的公共政策与商务发展副总裁Rohan Patel也与德鲁一起离职，不过这个消息尚未得到特斯拉或Patel的确认。

大摩Q1业绩超预期，投行业务营收同比增长19%

$摩根士丹利 (MS.US)$Q1营收为151.4亿美元，同比增长4%，好于市场预期的144.1亿美元；每股收益为2.02美元，好于市场预期的1.66美元。投行业务营收为15.89亿美元，同比增长19%；交易业务营收为48.52亿美元，同比增长8%；资产管理业务营收为52.69亿美元，同比增长11%。净利息收入为17.96亿美元，同比下降23%。截至发稿，摩根士丹利周二美股盘前涨近4%。

美银Q1营收、EPS超预期，投行业务营收同比增长35%

$美国银行 (BAC.US)$Q1营收为259.8亿美元，同比下降1.6%，好于市场预期的254.6亿美元；调整后的每股收益(不计入7亿美元的FDIC评估费用)为0.83美元，好于市场预期的0.76美元。净利息收入(NII)为141.9亿美元，高于市场预期的139.3亿美元。此外，投行业务营收同比增长35%，至15.7亿美元，好于市场预期的13.6亿美元，也好于该行首席执行官此前预期的同比增长10%-15%；固定收益业务营收同比下降3.6%，至33.1亿美元，略高于市场预期的32.4亿美元；股票业务营收同比增长15%，至18.7亿美元，略高于市场预期的18.4亿美元。

联合健康盘前涨超4%，一季度营收998亿美元超市场预期

$联合健康 (UNH.US)$盘前涨超4%，公司Q1营收为998亿美元，同比增长8.6%，超过分析师预期的993亿美元；调整后的每股收益为6.91美元，同样超过了分析师预期的6.59美元。该公司预计，2024年全年每股收益将在17.60美元至18.20美元之间(受网络攻击和出售巴西业务影响)，并维持其对2024年调整后每股收益为27.50美元至28.00美元的指引。

微软计划周二公布对阿联酋AI巨头G42投资15亿美元

$微软 (MSFT.US)$周二计划宣布向阿联酋的人工智能巨头G42投资15亿美元。根据合作协议，微软将允许G42出售使用强大人工智能芯片的微软服务，这些芯片用于训练和微调生成式人工智能模型。作为回报，G42将使用微软的云服务，并同意与美国政府进行详细谈判后达成的安全协议。

强生Q1每股收益超预期，上调全年销售额指引

$强生 (JNJ.US)$Q1销售额为213.8亿美元，同比增长2.3%，基本符合市场预期的213.9亿美元;调整后的净利润为65.8亿美元，同比增长3.8%；调整后的每股收益为2.71美元，好于市场预期的2.65美元。该公司预计，2024年销售额为887亿美元至891亿美元，高于此前预期的882亿至890亿美元，市场预期为884亿美元;预计调整后的每股收益为10.57-10.72美元，此前预期为10.55-10.75美元。

聚焦中概股

热门中概股盘前多数下跌

美股盘前成交额TOP20

美股宏观事历提醒

（以下均为北京时间）

20:30 美国3月营建许可月率初值

20:30 美国3月新屋开工年化月率

21:00 美联储副主席杰斐逊就货币政策发表讲话

21:15 美国3月工业产出月率

次日01:00 2024年FOMC票委、里奇蒙德联储主席巴尔金就经济前景发表讲话

次日01:15 美联储主席鲍威尔参与一场问答

次日04:30 美国截至4月12日当周API原油库存变动

编辑/new

Global macroscopic

Before the Tuesday market, the three major indices rose collectively

Wall Street is full of warnings! US dividends are piling up, and the decline is expected to continue

Citibank strategist Chris Montagu said that any further weakness in the US stock market is likely to intensify as investors sell large numbers of long futures positions; the S&P 500 has $52 billion long positions, 88% of which are in a loss state. Strategists believe this is a risk facing the market. A J.P. Morgan strategist warned not to expect an optimistic corporate earnings season to push the US stock market higher, because most of the optimism has already been digested after this year's record rise. Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson also warned about the impact of higher interest rates on stock valuations.

The MSCI global stock index fell 4% in April, and the RSI is close to the oversold level

After risky assets were sold off this month, a global benchmark stock index fell sharply, approaching the level of oversold. The MSCI Global Index's 14-day Relative Strength Index fell below 33 on Tuesday, to the level it had been since October last year. If the index falls below 30, it indicates that market momentum may have reversed, as the sell-off may have been excessive. The index fell by a cumulative total of nearly 4% in April, and is expected to record its first monthly decline since October last year, due to the weakening of the Federal Reserve's easing bets and the escalating conflict in the Middle East weakening the attractiveness of the stock market.

What signal? The dovish voting committee of the Federal Reserve no longer proposes to cut interest rates three times during the year!

San Francisco Federal Reserve Chairman Daly reiterated on Monday EST that the Federal Reserve is in no hurry to adjust interest rates. She pointed out that economic growth is steady, the job market is strong, and inflation remains high. Just two weeks ago, Daly also said that it would be “reasonable” to cut interest rates three times this year. She didn't restate this view on Monday, nor did she give any clear signal about when she might be ready to consider cutting interest rates; she only said she needed to be convinced that inflation was moving in the direction of 2%.

The Federal Reserve is expected to postpone interest rate cuts, and the US dollar index is expected to record its biggest weekly gain in a year

Growing expectations that US interest rates will remain high for a longer period of time have prompted investors to buy the dollar in a big way, and the dollar is expected to record its biggest weekly gain in more than a year. On Tuesday, the Bloomberg dollar index rose for the fifth consecutive trading day to its highest level since November last year. Chris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at Dutch International Group, said: “It is difficult to counter the dollar's bullish trend right now.” He said that the Bloomberg dollar index may rise another 1.2% to 1,280 points, which will be the highest level since October last year.

Citi is optimistic about the price of gold: it may rise to 3,000 US dollars/ounce in the next 6-18 months

Gold prices and demand have risen significantly due to heightened political tension in the Middle East and widespread market concerns about the economic outlook. Citigroup analysts are optimistic about the future of gold. They predict that in the next 6 to 18 months, the price of gold could reach $3,000 per ounce. Citibank analysts said that gold has been decoupled from US interest rates and the US dollar, indicating that factors including strong physical consumption and central bank purchases are supporting the market. Citi raised its 2024 and 2025 gold price forecasts by 6.8% to $2,350 per ounce and 40% to $2,875 per ounce, respectively.

Hot news

Star Technology's stock had mixed ups and downs before the market

Tesla fell more than 2% before the market, and Musk's core deputy announced his resignation following 10% global layoffs

$Tesla (TSLA.US)$US stocks fell more than 2% in the premarket to $158.065. Following Tesla's internal letter announcing 10% global layoffs yesterday, Drew Baglino (Drew Baglino), Tesla's core executive and senior vice president of powertrain and energy engineering, confirmed his departure from the company he had been working for 18 years on social media platforms. There is news that Tesla's vice president of public policy and business development Rohan Patel also left his job along with Drew, but this news has yet to be confirmed by Tesla or Patel.

Damo's Q1 performance exceeded expectations, and investment banking business revenue increased 19% year over year

$Morgan Stanley (MS.US)$Q1 revenue was US$15.14 billion, up 4% year over year, better than market expectations of US$14.41 billion; earnings per share were US$2.02, better than market expectations of US$1.66. Investment banking business revenue was US$1,589 million, up 19% year on year; revenue from trading business was US$4.852 billion, up 8% year on year; and revenue from asset management business was US$5.269 billion, up 11% year on year. Net interest income was $1,796 million, down 23% year over year. As of press release, Morgan Stanley's US stocks rose nearly 4% before the market on Tuesday.

Bank of America's Q1 revenue and EPS exceeded expectations, and investment banking business revenue increased 35% year-on-year

$Bank of America (BAC.US)$Q1 revenue was US$25.98 billion, down 1.6% year over year, better than market expectations of US$25.46 billion; adjusted earnings per share (before FDIC assessment fees of US$700 million) were $0.83, better than market expectations of $0.76. Net interest income (NII) was $14.19 billion, higher than market expectations of $13.93 billion. In addition, investment banking revenue increased 35% year over year to US$1.57 billion, better than market expectations of US$1.36 billion, and better than the bank's CEO's previous forecast of a 10%-15% year-on-year increase; revenue from the fixed income business fell 3.6% yoy to US$3.31 billion, slightly higher than market expectations of US$3.24 billion; and revenue from the stock business increased 15% yoy to US$1.87 billion, slightly higher than market expectations of US$1.84 billion.

UnitedHealth rose more than 4% in the premarket, with revenue of 99.8 billion US dollars in the first quarter exceeding market expectations

$UnitedHealth (UNH.US)$Up more than 4% before the market, the company's Q1 revenue was 99.8 billion US dollars, up 8.6% year over year, exceeding analysts' expectations of 99.3 billion US dollars; adjusted earnings per share were 6.91 US dollars, which also exceeded analysts' expectations of 6.59 US dollars. The company expects earnings per share for the full year 2024 to be between $17.60 and $18.20 (affected by cyber attacks and sale of Brazilian operations), and maintains its 2024 adjusted earnings per share guide of $27.50 to $28.00.

Microsoft plans to announce $1.5 billion investment in UAE AI giant G42 on Tuesday

$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$Plans on Tuesday announced a $1.5 billion investment in UAE artificial intelligence giant G42. Under the cooperation agreement, Microsoft will allow G42 to sell Microsoft services using powerful artificial intelligence chips, which are used to train and fine-tune generative AI models. In return, G42 will use Microsoft's cloud services and agree to a security agreement reached after detailed negotiations with the US government.

Johnson & Johnson's Q1 earnings per share exceeded expectations, raising full-year sales guidance

$Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.US)$Q1 sales were US$21.38 billion, up 2.3% year over year, basically in line with market expectations of US$21.39 billion; adjusted net profit was US$6.58 billion, up 3.8% year on year; adjusted earnings per share were US$2.71, better than market expectations of US$2.65. The company expects sales of US$88.7 billion to US$89.1 billion in 2024, higher than the previous forecast of US$88.2 billion to US$89 billion, and market expectations of US$88.4 billion; adjusted earnings per share are expected to be US$10.57-10.72, compared to the previous forecast of US$10.55-10.75.

Focus on China Securities

Most of the popular Chinese securities stocks fell before the market

Top 20 pre-market turnover of US stocks

US Stock Macro Calendar Reminder

(The following are all Beijing time)

20:30 Preliminary monthly rate for US construction permits in March

20:30 Annualized monthly rate of new home starts in the US in March

21:00 Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson delivered a speech on monetary policy

21.15 Monthly rate of US industrial output in March

The next day at 01:00 2024 FOMC voting committee and Richmond Federal Reserve Chairman Barkin delivered a speech on the economic outlook

At 01:15 the next day, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell participated in a Q&A

Changes in API crude oil inventories in the US for the week ending April 12 at 04:30 the next day

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