Event: The company released its 2023 annual report. In 2023, the company's revenue was +5.5% year-on-year to 14.81 billion yuan, and net profit to mother +5.8% year-on-year to 1.34 billion yuan, in line with previous performance forecasts.
The increase in volume drives growth, and the overall cost rate is stable. In 2023, the company's sales volume/ton alcohol price were +4.9%/0.6% year over year to 2.998 million kiloliters/4942.4 yuan/kilolitre. The company's sales volume/ton price in the 23Q4 single quarter were +4.8%/-8.1%, respectively. The weak price increase is expected to be mainly due to the base effect.
In 2023, the cost per ton was +3.3% to 2513.4 yuan/kilolitre, driving gross margin/sales expense ratio/management expense ratio -1.3/+0.5/-0.5pct year over year to 49.1%/17.1%/3.3%, and the net interest rate to mother was 9.0%, which remained the same as the previous year.
Waist products have performed well, and volume and price have risen sharply in the Southern District. In terms of price, the company's highest/mainstream/economic revenue was +5.2%/5.6%/10.1%, respectively. Among them, the increase in price volume above mainstream was driven by an increase of +4.0%/6.0% in highest/mainstream sales, and the volume and price of economic products rose sharply, and the sales/ton alcohol price was +3.8%/6.0%. We expect the company's Leburg, Chongqing and Carlsberg brands to perform well. Wusu outside of the Xinjiang region is still under pressure; in 2023, the company's northwest/central/southern regions respectively increased +1.1%/3.0%/3.0% to 40.2/ Of the 60.8/4.33 billion yuan, the Southern Region performed the best, with sales volume per ton +10.7%/2.8%, respectively, while the Northwest/Central region was -2.7%/+0.5%, respectively, with relatively weak performance.
A high percentage of dividends will be maintained in 2023, and the 2024 plan is steady. In 2023, the company plans to pay a cash dividend of 1.36 billion yuan, with a dividend ratio of 101.4%, maintaining a high dividend ratio. In 2024, the company plans to achieve medium to high single-digit revenue growth, and is expected to have a high degree of attainability.
Profit forecasting and investment advice. It is expected to achieve net profit of 14.6/16.0/1.71 billion yuan in 24-26, +9.6%/7.1% over the same period. The current stock price corresponds to PE 21/20/18 times. Refer to the comparable company giving the company 23 times PE in 24 years, with a corresponding reasonable value of 69.3 yuan, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning. Structural upgrades fall short of expectations; raw material cost pressure; food safety risks.