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At a time when technology stocks are booming, is Wall Street switching to energy stocks?

港股解碼 · Apr 16 18:46

2022年11月底，OpenAI的ChatGPT横空出世，上线5天收获超百万注册用户，由此引爆了新一轮AI浪潮。

AI领域的进展也立刻反映在了二级市场上，科技股普遍受益。其中，$英伟达 (NVDA.US)$取代$特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$成为市场最受瞩目的“明星”，$台积电 (TSM.US)$等公司也上演了一出出“大象起舞”的好戏。

不过，当市场将目光都聚集在科技股上的时候，能源股亦在默默走强，$埃克森美孚 (XOM.US)$、$康菲石油 (COP.US)$、$道达尔 (TTE.US)$等一些油气巨头的股价也创下了新高，成为另一条主线。

而在近期，市场传出声音，一些人认为华尔街要“弃科技”，“投能源”，这也引起了不少关注。

科技股迎来狂飙时刻

美股市场的科技股究竟有多强？

号称“AI军火商”的英伟达自2022年12月以来已飙涨超过4.2倍，目前市值已升至美股第三，如下图所示；而OpenAI的大股东$微软 (MSFT.US)$在同期内也大涨逾67%，目前市值高居美股第一；英伟达的代工商台积电（TSM.US）同期的涨幅亦有近77%。

此外，$亚马逊 (AMZN.US)$自2022年12月以来股价累涨近93%，Meta（META.US）、超威公司（AMD.US）、英特尔（INTC.US）等科技股也都有上佳的表现。

要知道，美联储的强力加息也是从2022年3月开始，并一度对美股市场造成动荡，但是受益于这一波AI浪潮，在巨型科技股的拉动下，美股市场不仅爬出了泥淖，还涨出了新高。

其佐证是自2022年12月以来，$道琼斯指数 (.DJI.US)$、$标普500指数 (.SPX.US)$分别累涨约10%、26%。而以科技成长为主导的纳斯达克指数自2022年12月以来累涨超过41%，大幅跑赢，且创下了新高。

可见，在这一轮加息的冲击下，美股市场很大程度上就靠大型科技股的狂飙来“挽尊”了。美股市场稳得住亦是美联储敢于强力加息，以及如今推迟降息的原因之一。

而科技股大幅上涨的背后也有着业绩的支撑，尤其是本轮的龙头英伟达。

在狂卖GPU芯片之后，英伟达2024财年（年结日为1月底）的营收同比大涨126%至609亿美元，其归母净利润更是同比飙增581%至298亿美元，算力芯片堪称是“印钞机”一般的存在。

能源的涨势丝毫不虚

虽然科技股的龙头英伟达表现强劲，但其实能源股的代表埃克森美孚在最近几年也迎来了一波超级牛市。

数据显示，自2020年11月以来，埃克森美孚的股价累涨超过335%，并在近期再度创下新高，表现同样惊人，走势如下图所示；$马拉松原油 (MPC.US)$同期飙涨688%，频创新高；康菲石油同期上涨逾427%。

此外，道达尔、$雪佛龙 (CVX.US)$，以及巴菲特的爱股$西方石油 (OXY.US)$也都在最近几年迎来大幅飙涨。

整体来看，能源股的涨幅丝毫不逊科技股，只不过科技股更有噱头一些，获得了更为广泛的关注。

这背后同样有着业绩支撑，近几年油气巨头也是赚得盆满钵满，下图是埃克森美孚近年的业绩表现。

而能源股股价及业绩双增的背后是近几年原油价格处于相对高位。

近期能源股受资本市场追捧的背后有两大逻辑：一是由于全球经济表现强于预期，石油需求旺盛；二是俄乌冲突、中东冲突等地缘政治危机导致的供应链不畅。

科技股还是能源股？

虽然同为近几年大涨的板块，但科技股和能源股的情况正在发生变化。

数据显示，2024年以来，标普500能源板块的涨幅超过美股科技股板块，更何况能源板块在分红派息上还非常土豪。

另外，数据还显示，在今年一季度标普500指数的涨幅中，大型科技股的贡献度已经从此前的70%跌至了现在的50%，显示大型科技股对标普500指数上涨的支撑力度有所下降，而其他板块的支撑力度相应增强。

有华尔街基金经理指出，数据变化背后预示着美股投资逻辑正发生重大变化：一是大型科技股的高估值劝退了许多投资者；二是近期美国经济数据令市场预感通胀压力回落绝不会一帆风顺，而能源股是最抗通胀的标的之一。

这种情况也被一些投资人认为是华尔街正在减仓科技股，转投能源股。

高盛分析师则指出，在经济增长推$高通 (QCOM.US)$胀、但尚未到失控地步的阶段，非能源股尤其是估值更低的价值股的表现应该不错。但如果出现石油供应冲击，只有石油股能独享红利，而其他股票则要经受增长放缓、衰退甚至滞胀之苦。

结语

需要指出的是，近一两年，科技股和能源股同样是国内资本市场的“宠儿”，只是情况和美股市场有所不同。

在国内，此前只要和AI扯得上联系的上市公司大都迎来了一波股价的疯涨，但是当潮水退去，这些所谓的AI概念股也基本回到了原来的样子，不过是幻梦一场。

反倒是能源股的表现更为持久，$中国石油股份 (00857.HK)$、$中国石油化工股份 (00386.HK)$、$中国海洋石油 (00883.HK)$等多只能源股均在近期迎来大涨，其中中国海油还创下了新高。

编辑/new

At the end of November 2022, OpenAI's ChatGPT came out of nowhere and gained over one million registered users in 5 days, thus setting off a new wave of AI.

Progress in the AI field was also immediately reflected in the secondary market, and technology stocks generally benefited. Among them,$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$supplant$Tesla (TSLA.US)$Become the “star” that has received the most attention in the market,$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$The company also staged a great drama called “The Elephant Dances.”

However, when the market is focusing all its attention on technology stocks, energy stocks are also silently strengthening.$Exxon Mobil (XOM.US)$,$ConocoPhillips (COP.US)$,$TotalEnergies (TTE.US)$The stock prices of some oil and gas giants also hit new highs, becoming another main line.

Recently, there have been voices in the market. Some people think that Wall Street should “abandon technology” and “invest in energy,” which has also attracted a lot of attention.

Tech stocks ushered in a moment of exuberance

How strong are tech stocks in the US stock market?

Nvidia, known as the “AI arms dealer,” has soared more than 4.2 times since December 2022. Currently, its market capitalization has risen to third place in the US stock market, as shown in the figure below; while OpenAI's major shareholder$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$It also surged more than 67% during the same period, and currently has the highest market capitalization in US stocks; Nvidia's generation TSM.US also rose nearly 77% during the same period.

Furthermore,$Amazon (AMZN.US)$Stock prices have risen nearly 93% since December 2022, and technology stocks such as Meta (META.US), Chaowei (AMD.US), and Intel (INTC.US) have also performed well.

You need to know that the Federal Reserve's strong interest rate hike also began in March 2022 and caused turmoil in the US stock market for a while, but benefiting from this wave of AI, driven by giant technology stocks, the US stock market not only climbed out of the quagmire, but also rose to a new high.

This is evidenced by the fact that since December 2022,$Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$,$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$The increase was approximately 10% and 26%, respectively. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Index, which is dominated by technological growth, has surged more than 41% since December 2022, outperforming sharply and reaching a new high.

It can be seen that under the impact of this round of interest rate hikes, the US stock market has largely relied on the boom in large technology stocks to “defend itself.” The stability of the US stock market is also one of the reasons why the Federal Reserve dared to vigorously raise interest rates and is now delaying interest rate cuts.

However, behind the sharp rise in technology stocks, there is also performance support, especially Nvidia, the leader in this round.

After selling GPU chips, Nvidia's revenue for fiscal year 2024 (end of January) surged 126% year on year to US$60.9 billion, and its net profit surged 581% year over year to US$29.8 billion. Hashrate chips can be called “money printers.”

The rise in energy is unmistakable

Although Nvidia, the leader in technology stocks, showed strong performance, in fact, the energy stock representative ExxonMobil also ushered in a wave of super bullish markets in recent years.

The data shows that since November 2020, ExxonMobil's stock price has risen by more than 335% and recently hit a new high again. The performance is also impressive. The trend is shown in the chart below;$Marathon Petroleum (MPC.US)$Over the same period, it soared 688% to new highs; ConocoPhillips rose more than 427% during the same period.

Additionally, Total,$Chevron (CVX.US)$, and Buffett's love stock$Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US)$They have also all experienced a sharp rise in recent years.

Overall, the increase in energy stocks was no less than that of technology stocks, except that technology stocks were more gimmicky and received more widespread attention.

There is also performance support behind this. The oil and gas giants have also made a lot of money in recent years. The picture below shows ExxonMobil's performance in recent years.

However, the reason behind the increase in energy stock prices and performance is that crude oil prices have been relatively high in recent years.

There are two major logics behind the recent popularity of energy stocks in the capital market: first, oil demand is strong due to stronger global economic performance than expected; second, poor supply chains due to geopolitical crises such as the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the Middle East conflict.

Tech stocks or energy stocks?

Although it is the same sector that has surged in recent years, the situation of technology stocks and energy stocks is changing.

The data shows that since 2024, the S&P 500 energy sector has surpassed that of the US technology stock sector, not to mention that the energy sector is still very wealthy in terms of dividends.

Furthermore, the data also shows that in the increase in the S&P 500 index in the first quarter of this year, the contribution of large technology stocks has dropped from 70% before to 50% now, indicating that the support of large technology stocks for the rise of the S&P 500 index has declined, while support from other sectors has increased accordingly.

Some Wall Street fund managers pointed out that behind the data changes, the investment logic of US stocks is undergoing major changes: first, the high valuations of large technology stocks dissuade many investors; second, recent US economic data has given the market a sense that the decline in inflationary pressure will never be easy, and energy stocks are one of the most resistant targets for inflation.

This situation is also believed by some investors to be that Wall Street is reducing its positions in technology stocks and switching to energy stocks.

Goldman Sachs analysts pointed out that economic growth is boosted$Qualcomm (QCOM.US)$Inflation has not reached the stage where it has gotten out of control. Non-energy stocks, especially value stocks with lower valuations, should perform well. However, if there is an oil supply shock, only oil stocks can enjoy dividends, while other stocks will suffer from slowing growth, recession, and even stagnation.

epilogue

It should be pointed out that in the past year or two, technology stocks and energy stocks have also been the “darlings” of the domestic capital market; however, the situation is different from the US stock market.

At home, most of the listed companies that previously only had a connection to AI experienced a wave of sharp increases in stock prices, but when the tide receded, these so-called AI concept stocks also basically returned to their original form; it was just a fantasy.

Instead, the performance of energy stocks is more enduring.$PETROCHINA (00857.HK)$,$SINOPEC CORP (00386.HK)$,$CNOOC (00883.HK)$Many other energy stocks have recently experienced a sharp rise. Among them, CNOOC also hit new highs.

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