自营投资回暖，投行业务略有下滑，公司机构客户规模进一步扩大。2023年末公司50 亿元以上重点私募客户交易覆盖率达79%，私募客户交易资产规模同比增长12.22%。2023 年（1）自营投资净收益56.77 亿元，同比+27.9%。持续发展做市、场外衍生品等资本中介型交易业务和量化策略等中性投资业务，金融资产规模为3746.04 亿元，同比上升21.4%。其中股票部分由9.15%升至15.61%。（2）投行业务收入13.02 亿元，同比下滑6.6%。公司A 股IPO 在审项目数量 27 家排名行业第9。其中，科创板、北交所IPO 在审项目数量分别排名行业第7、第6。Performance is picking up steadily, and the table continues to expand. Revenue in 2023 was 19.821 billion yuan, +3.13% YoY; net profit to mother was 8.764 billion yuan, +8.57% YoY. The quarterly net profit for Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 was +51.5%/-11.9%/-15.9%/+32.1%, respectively. The table continued to expand, and after exclusion, the leverage ratio rose several times to 4.74, with a weighted average ROE of 7.91% in 2023.
The growing customer base promotes the consolidation of the advantages of the pan-retail business. Brokerage revenue in 2023 (1) -22% YoY. Stock trading volume market share increased by 0.01 pct to 5.23%. The number of new accounts opened in 2023 ranked 2nd in the industry, and the company's app users ranked first among the top ten brokerage firms in a single day. Net revenue from consignment sales was 714 million yuan, -13% year over year. The number of wealth advisors increased by 8.80%, and the number of high-net-worth clients reached 31,700, up 5.67% year over year. (2) The size of Liangfinance shares has increased, and revenue has declined.
Interest income of the two loans was -5.16% year over year. (3) The asset management business declined slightly. In 2023, the brokerage asset management business achieved net revenue of 640 million yuan, -16.3%; net revenue from fund management business was 73 million yuan, +13.9% year on year; total net income from asset management was 713 million yuan, -14.0% year on year.
Proprietary investment picked up, investment banking business declined slightly, and the size of the company's institutional customers further expanded. At the end of 2023, the transaction coverage rate of the company's key private equity clients of 5 billion yuan or more reached 79%, and the volume of assets traded by private equity clients increased by 12.22% year-on-year. Net income from proprietary investment in 2023 (1) was $5.677 billion, +27.9% year-on-year. Continued development of capital intermediary trading services such as market making and OTC derivatives, and neutral investment businesses such as quantitative strategies. The financial asset size was 374.604 billion yuan, an increase of 21.4% over the previous year. The share portion rose from 9.15% to 15.61%. (2) Investment banking business revenue was 1.32 billion yuan, down 6.6% year on year. The company ranked 9th in the industry for the number of A-share IPOs under review, with 27 projects. Among them, the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the Beijing Stock Exchange ranked 7th and 6th in the industry for the number of projects under review, respectively.
Profit forecasting and investment advice. The internal stability of the capital market has improved, and leading brokerage firms have benefited even more in the process of building first-class investment banks. The company's profits have been steadily increasing, and customer base optimization at both retail and institutional levels has been strengthened. The company's net assets are expected to be $14.93/16.01 per share in 2024-2025. Given 0.9-1.8 times the PB core in the past five years, the reasonable value of A shares is 19.40 yuan/share, and since the AH premium corresponds to a reasonable value of HK$8.31 per share for H shares, maintaining the “buy” ratings for A and H shares.
Risk warning. The economy fell short of expectations; changes in industry policies, market fluctuations caused performance to fall short of expectations, etc.
