Key points of investment:
Incident: Furander released its 2023 annual results report. The company achieved net profit of 417 million yuan, an increase of 36.85% over the same period of the previous year, and achieved net profit of 390 million yuan attributable to shareholders of listed companies after deducting non-recurring profit and loss, an increase of 38.72% over the same period last year. The results were in line with expectations.
In 2023, the company will continue to maintain its industry benchmark position, actively develop key customers, and ensure the sustainability of business growth. In 2023, the company sold a total of about 1.72 million tons of steel and aluminum materials for automobile bodies, of which the automobile industry sold 1.16 million tons (including 13,000 tons of aluminum sheets), accounting for more than 10% of the passenger car steel and aluminum sheet market, with a clear position advantage in the industry. At the same time, in 2023, on the basis of existing customers, the company developed many new domestic car builders and OEM customers, including Chery, BYD, and Ideal, and successfully won the bid for BYD and Ideal Auto Sheet Projects, providing a guarantee for the company's performance growth.
The company actively develops high-value-added businesses, extends the value chain, and enhances overall competitiveness and profitability. According to the company's official website, on March 7, Furander and its subsidiaries Wuhu Foster Intelligent Manufacturing, Wuhu Freed Intelligent Manufacturing and the Wuhu Economic and Technological Development Zone Management Committee reached a strategic cooperation on investment in deep processing projects such as automotive steel unloading, stamping welding, thermoforming, and integrated die casting, and successfully held a signing ceremony. The project is expected to cover an area of about 250 acres, with a total investment of about 1.2 billion yuan to set up 5 steel and aluminum plate processing lines and 5 stamping and welding lines. It is expected that after the project is implemented, it will further strengthen the cooperative relationship between the company and Chery, promote future cooperation and development between the two sides, and help the company expand its business scale while optimizing the product structure and improving the company's profitability.
Based on the company's 2023 performance report, maintain a “buy” rating: In line with the company's 2023 performance report, considering the company's active expansion of high-value-added business, developing key customers and high sales growth of new energy vehicles, the Mattei effect will continue to be prominent. We maintain profit forecasts for 24 and 25, and add profit forecasts for 26 years. The net profit of the company's 2024E-2026E is expected to be 5.66, 7.19, and 844 million yuan, respectively. The corresponding PE is 7 times that of 10/8/7. Maintain Flemish's “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Major customer automobile production and sales fall short of expectations; steel prices fluctuate greatly; production safety accidents; integrated die-casting capacity utilization falls short of expectations.