The company released its 23rd annual report: In '23, it achieved revenue of 122.981 billion yuan, down 12.87% year on year, mainly affected by domestic and foreign macroeconomic conditions on commodity demand; realized net profit to mother of 1,030 billion yuan, an increase of 12.80% over the previous year. On a quarterly basis, 23Q4 achieved revenue of 26.919 billion yuan in a single quarter, an increase of 2.84% year on year; net profit to mother was 135 million yuan, an increase of 4.19% year on year.
The industrial chain sector continues to grow, and the supply chain category structure is optimized. According to the company's financial report and public account, (1) Industrial Chain: Achieved revenue of 31.318 billion yuan in 23 years, up 3.27% year on year, accounting for 25.47% of revenue; total realized profit of 2,505 billion yuan, up 15.02% year on year, accounting for 63.30% of total profit, up about 5pp year on year. (2) Supply chain: Revenue of 91,393 billion yuan was achieved in '23, down 17.41% year on year. Among them, domestic trade volume of petrochemical products with high added value also increased 15% to 18.6 billion yuan; total realized profit was 1,453 billion yuan, down 9.49% year on year.
Business optimization boosted gross profit margins, and the expense ratio increased during the period. According to the company's financial report, the company's gross margin for 23 years was 5.69%, up 0.83pp; on the cost side, the company's expense ratio for 23 years was 2.73%, up 0.64pp year on year, and sales/management/R&D/finance cost ratios all increased year on year, with increases of 0.32pp/0.26pp/0.05pp/0.08pp, respectively. Among them, the increase in sales expenses was mainly due to the increase in warranty expenses related to the shipbuilding business and the salary of sales staff employees; under the combined influence, the company's net interest rate to mother in '23 was 0.84%, up year on year. 0.19pp
Maintain a high dividend ratio and share profits with investors. According to the company's financial report, the company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3.3 yuan (tax included) for every 10 shares in '23, with a total dividend amount of about 431 million yuan, accounting for 41.88% of the company's net profit returned to mother in '23, giving full attention to shareholders' rights.
Profit forecasting and investment advice. The estimated net profit for 24-26 will be 11.1 billion yuan, 12.3 billion yuan, and 1.35 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.1%, 10.4%, and 10.2%, respectively. Considering that the influence of the company's own brands in various segments continues to increase, development continues to be specialized, and performance is expected to be catalyzed by the Belt and Road Initiative, maintaining a reasonable value of 9.29 yuan/share and maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning. Demand for commodities fluctuates, market competition is fierce, and overseas markets and exchange rates fluctuate.