23 年计算芯片增长明显，行业类芯片承压下滑：2023 年部分消费类产品市场开始复苏，公司把握双摄、多摄市场需求趋势，且积极推广微处理器新品X2600，在打印机市场获得突破，推动公司23 年计算芯片收入同比+43.9%。但公司目前收入主要来自行业类市场，23 年市场需求低迷、客户去库压力较大，存储/模拟与互联收入同比-28.2%和-14.6%，导致公司整体收入和利润下滑。Event: Company Releases 2023 Annual Report:
1) 2023: Revenue of 4.53 billion yuan, -16.3% year on year; net profit to mother of 540 million yuan, -31.9% year on year; net profit without return to mother of 490 million yuan, or -34.2% year on year. Gross profit margin 37.1%, -1.46pct year over year. Net operating cash flow reached 550 million yuan, +839.2% year over year.
2) 23Q4: Revenue of 1.11 billion yuan, -6.9% yoy, -7.3% month-on-month; net profit to mother of 170 million yuan, +193.6% yoy, +15.4% month-on-month; minus 150 million yuan, +377.5% YoY, +3.1% month-on-month. Gross profit margin 38.4%, +0.14pct year over year, +1.27pct month-on-month.
Computing chips grew significantly in 23, and industry chips declined under pressure: in 2023, the market for some consumer products began to recover. The company grasped the demand trend in the dual camera and multi-camera market, and actively promoted the new microprocessor X2600, making a breakthrough in the printer market, driving the company's computing chip revenue +43.9% year-on-year. However, the company's current revenue mainly comes from the industry market. Market demand was sluggish in '23, customer pressure was high, and storage/simulation and interconnection revenue were -28.2% and -14.6% year-on-year, leading to a decline in the company's overall revenue and profit.
The trend in the consumer market increased in 24, and the industrial market gradually picked up: with the further removal of inventory in the industrial chain, it is expected that demand in the consumer market will recover further in 24, and more consumer product markets will enter an upward channel, while the automotive, industrial and other industrial markets will gradually pick up. The company is currently a mainstream supplier in the domestic security monitoring market. It is a leading supplier of automotive storage in the world. It has achieved mass production and shipment of new products such as the 8G LPDDR4 and GreenPhy, and is also developing next-generation DRAM technology and products to support the development of larger capacity DRAM products. The company grasps industry trends+ actively launches new products, and is expected to benefit from industry recovery to achieve upward growth in 24 years.
Investment advice: Considering that the industrial chip market targeted by the company is still in a gradual recovery stage, we have lowered our profit forecast appropriately. We expect the company's net profit to be 6.5/8.8 billion yuan in 2024-26 (previously, 8.5/1.35 billion yuan in 2024-25), corresponding to PE of 46/34/25 times, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: The risk of domestic storage substitution falling short of expectations, terminal demand falling short of expectations, and untimely update of research and usage information data.
