The company's 2024Q1 performance is expected to grow at a high year-on-year rate. Maintaining the “Buy” rating company's 2023 performance report and 2024Q1 performance forecast, the company achieved operating income of 220,079 billion yuan, +50.32% year over year; net profit to mother of $3,899 billion, +65.73% year over year; deducted non-net profit of 3,581 billion yuan, +70.05% year over year. In addition, 2024Q1's revenue was $54.2-6.24 billion, +40.01~ +61.19%, and -27.65% ~ -16.7%; net profit to mother was 1.04 to 1.2 billion yuan, +75.77% ~ +102.81%, +2.49% ~ +18.24%; after deducting non-net profit of 9.9-1.14 billion yuan, +85.46% ~ +113.56%, and +5.17% to +21.16% month-on-month. According to the company's 2023 performance report and 2024Q1 performance forecast guidelines, we raised the company's 2023-2025 profit forecast. The estimated net profit for 2023-2025 is 38.99/57.05/7.685 billion yuan (previous value was 38.26/51.96/7.316 billion yuan), and the 2023-2025 EPS is expected to be 7.35/10.76/14.49 yuan (previous value was 7.22/9.8/13.8 yuan). The PE corresponding to the current stock price is 42.6/29.1 /21.6 times As a leader in domestic semiconductor equipment, the company's platform-based layout accelerates and maintains a “buy” rating.
The company has signed plenty of new orders, and the market share of various semiconductor devices has been steadily rising. The company has signed more than 30 billion yuan of new orders in 2023, of which the integrated circuit sector accounts for more than 70%. The company continues to focus on its main business and continuously improve its core competitiveness. The company's market share of process equipment such as etching, film deposition, cleaning, and furnace tubes used in the field of integrated circuits has been rising steadily, and 2024Q1's revenue has increased steadily over the same period last year. As the scale of the company's revenue continues to expand, the scale effect gradually became apparent, and the cost ratio declined steadily, so that the company's net profit to mother maintained a high year-on-month increase.
It is expected that mainland China's fab equipment expenditure will lead the world, and the company is expected to fully benefit from equipment localization. According to SEMI estimates, 300MM fab equipment expenditure in 2024 is +1% year over year, +20% year over year to 116.5 billion US dollars in 2025, +12% year over year to 13.5 billion US dollars in 2026, and hit a record high of 137 billion yuan in 2027, +5% year on year, and 9% CAGR in 2024-2027. Meanwhile, the mainland China market continues to lead global fab equipment spending with an annual investment scale of more than 30 billion US dollars from 2024-2027. In the future, as the production capacity of domestic storage and logic fabs continues to increase, combined with the steady increase in the company's equipment process coverage, the company is expected to fully benefit from the acceleration of equipment localization and a significant increase in market share.
Risk warning: The recovery in industry sentiment falls short of expectations, product development falls short of expectations, and the competitive landscape of the industry intensifies.