利润端，由于高强度的研发投入，2023 年公司归母净利润为-0.56亿元。具体来看，公司研发人员数量由2022 年的224 人增长至2023年的358 人，且硕士及以上学历达75%，使得研发费用率上升至72%，较2022 年提升22pcts。从全球来看，EDA 属于高度人才、技术密集型产业，海外龙头企业如Synopsys、Cadence 研发费用率长期维持在30%-40%的区间，而国内包括公司在内的EDA 企业整体仍属于追赶阶段，需要更高的研发投入强度，因此我们预计公司研发费用率或将维持在较高水平。Incident Overview
Guilun Electronics released its 2023 Annual Report on April 13. In 2023, the company achieved operating income of 329 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.07%; net profit to mother -56 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 225.5%; net profit after deducting non-attributable net profit of -67 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 307.8%.
For the first time, design EDA accounted for more than half, and R&D intensity further increased on the revenue side. In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 329 million yuan (yoy +18.1%). EDA software is still the company's largest business segment, achieving revenue of 203 million yuan (yoy +10.9%), of which manufacturing EDA was 100 million yuan (yoy -4.11%), and there was some fluctuation in customer demand, mainly downstream and storage; design EDA was 102 million yuan (yoy +31.2%), accounting for more than half for the first time. We believe that the increase in design EDA comes from the large-scale introduction of software launched by NanoDesigner and other companies in recent years on the customer side. In addition, the company's semiconductor device characteristic testing system and technology development solution business also contributed to significant performance increases, achieving revenue of 82 million yuan (yoy +33.8%) and 43 million yuan (yoy +30.2%) respectively. The former further increased the market share of the company's products, while the latter was the broadening of the scope of the company's technology development and high domestic downstream prosperity.
On the profit side, due to high R&D investment, the company's net profit to mother in 2023 was -56 million yuan. Specifically, the number of R&D personnel in the company increased from 224 in 2022 to 358 in 2023, and reached 75% with a master's degree or above, increasing the R&D expenses rate to 72%, an increase of 22 pcts over 2022. From a global perspective, EDA is a highly talented and technology-intensive industry. The R&D cost rate of leading overseas companies such as Synopsys and Cadence has remained in the 30%-40% range for a long time, while domestic EDA companies as a whole, including companies, are still in the catch-up stage and require higher R&D investment intensity, so we expect the company's R&D cost rate to remain at a high level.
Domestic revenue is increasing, and the product matrix is getting richer
By region, benefiting from domestic substitution demand, the company's domestic business growth rate was significantly higher than that of overseas. Domestic revenue of 211 million yuan (yoy +36.51%) in 2023 increased to 64.34%. We believe the dividends from replacement demand are expected to continue for a long time. At the same time, on the supply side, in addition to endogenous R&D, the company has successively acquired Fuzhou Xinzhilian and Belgian EDA company Magwel. The former has a leading position in board-level and package-level design design, while the latter's two core tools, ESD design verification and power device design analysis PTM, have been used by leading global analog and power semiconductor manufacturers for many years. We believe that with the increasingly rich product matrix, the company is continuing to open up accessible market space. The number of customers in 2023 was 149, an increase of 18.25% over the previous year; single customer revenue reached 2.199 million yuan, which is also an increase over 2022.
Investment advice:
The company is an EDA company with few domestic products with global competitiveness. Currently, it is fully benefiting from the development of the domestic semiconductor industry and autonomous and controllable opportunities. At the same time, it is gradually expanding from manufacturing EDA to full-process design EDA through endogenous R&D, epitaxial acquisitions, and ecological construction. We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 428/5.39/660 million yuan, respectively, and net profit to mother of -0.35/0.29/0.88 billion yuan, respectively. Maintaining the buy-A investment rating, the target price for 6 months is 19.72 yuan, which is equivalent to 20 times the dynamic market sales ratio of 2024.
Risk warning: 1) Risk of new product development falling short of expectations; 2) risk in overseas markets; 3) risk of falling short of expectations in downstream market demand; 4) risk of not being able to find targets for acquisition or strategic investment; 5) risk of loss of technical personnel.
