Investment events
The company expects to achieve net profit of 108 million yuan to 120 million yuan in 2024Q1, an increase of 31.63% to 46.25% over the previous year.
Key points of investment
The performance for the first quarter of 2024 was impressive.
According to the performance report, in 2023, the company achieved operating income of 5.703 billion yuan, an increase of 32.96% year on year; net profit to mother was 407 million yuan, up 58.52% year on year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 391 million yuan, an increase of 63.5% year on year.
The calculation obtained 2023Q4 revenue of about 1.8 billion yuan, and net profit of 129 million yuan to mother. The net profit forecast for 2024Q1 is 114 million yuan, and our estimated revenue is around 1.5 billion yuan, which is in line with our previous expectations. We believe that although Aian Auto's sales performance was mediocre in 2024Q1, it was due to the company's wide customer coverage, questioning the market and car companies such as BYD to effectively fill the demand, and in addition, the power battery shipment boom is good.
Many new targets have been added in recent years, which is expected to support medium- to long-term revenue growth. The company has received sufficient new targets from downstream customers in recent years. According to the company's announcement, the company added more than 33 billion yuan in the first, second, and fourth quarters of 2023. In addition, in January-March 2024, the company received a project target from a leading domestic automobile brand customer to supply products such as seat structures, insulation panels, water tanks, and power battery case structures for new energy vehicles. According to customer forecasts, the mass production period for the targeted projects obtained this time is 2024 and 2025, respectively, and the life cycle is 1-5 years. The total sales volume of the project is estimated to be about 300 million yuan.
The fixed increase distribution has been completed, and the layout of the production base has been further improved
On April 13, the company announced the completion of the fixed increase issuance. The total number of shares issued was 26 million shares, and the total amount raised was 886 million yuan. The actual net capital raised was 863 million yuan. It is mainly invested in production bases such as Dongguan, Guangzhou, Changshu and Yibin. It is expected to expand the company's product line layout in the fields of new energy vehicles, power batteries, energy storage and photovoltaics, and enhance customer stickiness.
Profit forecasting and valuation
Maintain profit forecasts and maintain a “buy” rating. The company's customers cover mainstream companies for new energy vehicles, optical storage inverters, and power batteries, and are full of orders on hand, which is expected to support rapid growth in performance. The company's performance report revealed that net profit due to mother in 2023 was 407 million yuan. With the implementation of the results for the first quarter of 2024, we maintained the company's net profit of 659 million yuan and 847 million yuan respectively in 2024-2025, corresponding to EPS of 3.70 and 4.75 yuan, and the current stock price corresponding to PE is 9 to 7 times. Maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
Downstream demand fell short of expectations, order confirmation fell short of expectations, and market competition intensified.