Hot news

• The Federal Reserve's “Big Three” are against market expectations: interest rate cuts may begin this year

New York Federal Reserve Chairman Williams, who is known as the “top three in the Federal Reserve,” and enjoys permanent FOMC voting rights, said he doesn't think the recent US inflation data is a turning point. It reiterated that the current monetary policy is in a good state, and that monetary policy is restrictive. If inflation continues to gradually fall, the Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates this year.

• Market liquidity lights up red! The scale of use of the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreement plummeted to less than $400 billion

According to the latest data released by the Federal Reserve, the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreement (RRP) usage scale was US$327.066 billion, falling below and well below the US$400 billion mark. The last trading day reported US$407.322 billion. This is at least the first time since May 2021 that RRP has fallen below the $400 billion mark. This indicates that market liquidity is once again turning red, and the risk of a liquidity crisis breaking out in the future is increasing.

• “Horrible data” is once again showing a scary trend: American consumers are still not on the verge of “dying out”!

The monthly retail sales rate in the US recorded 0.7% in March, exceeding market expectations of 0.3%, a record high since September last year. The previous month's data was revised higher, showing the elasticity of consumer demand, which may support the strong economic growth of the US in the first quarter. The report also indicates that consumer spending will remain strong as we enter the second quarter. As long as a strong labor market supports household demand, inflation is likely to become entrenched and further delay the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts.

• The highest view is 130! If the situation between Iraq and Israel escalates, this will become the “throat” of oil prices

Iran is rich in oil resources and is OPEC's third-largest oil producer. Analysts said that if Iran's supply is interrupted, it could push up oil prices. The market will also keep a close eye on developments or closures in the Strait of Hormuz. Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, said: Any attack on Iran's oil production or export facilities will push the price of Brent crude oil to $100, while the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will cause the price to be between $120 and $130.

Resumption of US stock trading

• The S&P and NASDAQ both fell by more than 1%, and 10,000 people were laid off, and Tesla fell sharply by 5%

Affected by the escalation of the situation in the Middle East and higher US bond yields, the three major US stock indices fell collectively on Monday. The Dow Jones index fell 0.65%, recording six consecutive daily declines; the S&P 500 index fell 1.20%; and the NASDAQ, which mainly focuses on technology stocks, fell 1.79%.

Major technology stocks fell collectively, with Tesla falling more than 5%, Apple, Meta, and Nvidia falling more than 2%, Microsoft and Google falling nearly 2%, and Amazon falling more than 1%.

Most of the popular Chinese securities fell, with NIO falling more than 5%, Xiaopeng Auto by more than 3%, Ideal Auto by more than 2%, Pinduoduo by more than 1%, and Alibaba by nearly 1%.

• Tesla continues to vibrate: the news of the 10% layoff hasn't heated up yet, and Musk's core deputy official announces his resignation

Just on Monday”$Tesla (TSLA.US)$“Internal Letter Announces 10% Global Layoffs” At a time when the market was in turmoil, the American tram giant was also shaking personnel: Drew Baglino (Drew Baglino), Tesla's core executive and senior vice president of powertrain and energy engineering, announced his departure from the company he had been working for 18 years. By the close, Tesla was down more than 5%.

• The investment banking business rebounded strongly. Goldman Sachs net profit in the first quarter surged 28% year on year, and stock prices rose nearly 3% year on year

Thanks to the outstanding performance of the investment banking business,$Goldman Sachs (GS.US)$Both Q1 revenue and profit exceeded expectations. According to financial reports, Goldman Sachs's net revenue for the first quarter was US$14.21 billion, up 16% year on year, exceeding Wall Street's expectations of US$12.98 billion. Profit for the first quarter surged 28% year on year to US$4.13 billion. As of press time, Goldman Sachs is up nearly 3%.

• Japan plans antitrust action against Google over search ads

According to people familiar with the matter, the Japan Fair Trade Commission (JFTC) is planning to take anti-monopoly actions to promote$Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$Voluntary reform of its commercial practices as Google allegedly imposes unfair restrictions on its search advertising cooperation with Yahoo. Japanese regulators have been investigating keyword-targeted search advertising technology provided by the search giant to Yahoo. Google is believed to have submitted an improvement plan to prevent the problem from happening again, and the agency is expected to accept the plan. The committee is also investigating Google's search service, but decided to prioritize addressing its advertising business issues.

• The stock price of “Trump Group” plummeted 18%, and the company plans to apply for an additional 20 million shares

On Monday,$Trump Media & Technology (DJT.US)$It fell 18.35%. According to the news, plans to issue additional common shares were disclosed in a document submitted to the SEC. According to the documents, the company plans to apply for the issuance of approximately 21.5 million shares and 4061,251 warrants. Additionally, the company mentioned that existing shareholders may resell up to 146 million common shares in the future, of which about 115 million shares come from former US President Donald Trump.

Top 20 US stock turnover

Hong Kong Market Outlook

• China Mobile and Tencent both rushed over HK$500 million to raise

On April 15 (Monday), Southbound made a net purchase of HK$7.54 billion in Hong Kong stocks.

$CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK)$,$TENCENT (00700.HK)$,$BANK OF CHINA (03988.HK)$Received net purchases of HK$579 million, HK$526 million and HK$502 million respectively;$HKEX (00388.HK)$The net sale was HK$13.81 million.

Today's attention

Keywords: China's annual GDP for the first quarter, annual rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods in March, annual value added rate of industries above the scale of March, speeches by Federal Reserve officials, Joint Health/Bank of America performance

On Tuesday, in terms of economic data, investors need to pay close attention to China's annual GDP rate for the first quarter, the annual rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods in March, and the annual value added rate of industries above the March scale.

In terms of financial events, the State Information Office held a press conference on the operation of the national economy. Additionally, in 2024, the FOMC voting committee, San Francisco Federal Reserve Chairman Daley, and Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson will deliver speeches, and investors will focus their attention.

In terms of financial reports, US stocks$UnitedHealth (UNH.US)$,$Bank of America (BAC.US)$Results will be announced before the market.

Futubull Chen read:

There are only a few opportunities, and when one comes up, we jump over and seize it.
—Charlie Munger

Editor/Somer