occurrences
On April 15, 2024, the company released its 2023 annual report, achieving annual revenue of 763.68 billion yuan, -8.3%; net profit to mother of 13.10 billion yuan, +108.8% year-on-year; net profit after deducting non-attributable net profit of 2.41 billion yuan, or -34.9% year-on-year. It is proposed to pay a cash dividend of 7 yuan for every 10 shares, accounting for 58.7% of net profit to mother after excluding restructuring proceeds, and a dividend ratio of about 7.1%.
reviews
The restructuring revenue drove the increase in net profit to the mother, and the current results of the three major businesses were under pressure: the company and MediaTek Group acquired 29.95% of Macalline's shares at a consideration price of 6.286 billion yuan and officially merged in the third quarter. The proceeds from the restructuring were recorded in non-recurring profit and loss of 9.522 billion yuan, and the net profit to the mother increased dramatically in the current period. Net profit due to the year-on-year decline after excluding restructuring proceeds was mainly due to a certain decline in the current performance of the three major business segments.
Supply chain sector: In 2023, the division achieved revenue of 593.37 billion yuan, -14.8% year-on-year, and realized net profit of 3.95 billion yuan, or -1.4% year-on-year. In an environment where commodity prices fluctuate sharply, with steady risk control capabilities, business performance is relatively stable.
Real estate sector: In 2023, the division achieved revenue of 166.45 billion yuan, achieving net profit of 190 million yuan over the same period, or -91.6% year on year; of these, C&D Real Estate contributed 2.05 billion yuan to net profit to mother, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3 billion yuan, and MediaTek contributed 1.86 billion yuan to net profit to mother, a year-on-year decrease of 2.05 billion yuan. Affected by the downturn in the market, the gross margin of the sector fell from 14.64% in 2022 to 11.51% in 2023. C&D Real Estate and MediaTek Group recorded losses of 1.45 billion yuan and 1.48 billion yuan respectively.
Home Furnishing Mall Operation Sector: In 2023, Macalline calculated asset and credit impairment, lowered the fair value of investment real estate, and disposal projects generated a total of 3.16 billion yuan in non-operating expenses, resulting in a net profit of 2,216 billion yuan returned to mother. Net profit contributed to the company from September to December 2023 was -560 million yuan.
Real estate sales bucked the trend, and investment was steady “based on income and expenditure”: in 2023, the company's total sales amount was 229.5 billion yuan, +9.4% year over year; of these, C&D Real Estate sales amount was 189.1 billion yuan, +6.1% year over year, ranking 8th in the industry (ranking 10th in 2022); MediaTek Group's sales volume was 40.3 billion yuan, +28.0% year on year, ranking 26th in the industry. In 2023, the company acquired 91 land cases, with a total land acquisition amount of 132 billion yuan, of which Tier 1 and 2 cities accounted for more than 90%, with a land acquisition intensity of 0.58.
Investment advice
The company has strong supply chain risk control capabilities, and real estate investment and sales are active and steady. It is expected that withholding performance will continue to grow in the future. We adjusted the company's 2024/2025 net profit to 6.76 billion yuan and 8.40 billion yuan (originally 6.7.3/8.47 billion yuan), and added the 2026 net profit forecast of 9.32 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -48.4%, 24.2%, and 11.0%, respectively. The current price of the company's stock corresponds to the 2024-26 PE valuation of 4.4/3.5/3.2 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning
Commodity prices fluctuated sharply; sales in the real estate market were sluggish; policies fell short of expectations.