The company is a global leader in photovoltaic modules, and its advantages will continue to be strengthened. The company has been deeply involved in the photovoltaic business for 20 years and is a leading enterprise in the module industry. In 2014, the company's module shipments exceeded 1 GW in a single quarter, reaching the world's number one module shipment for the first time, achieving a historic breakthrough; the company ranked first in the world in module shipments in 2014-2015, establishing a leading position in the world; in 2016-2023, the company continued to rank in the top five global PV module shipments, further consolidating the company's position as a global module giant, actively expanding related supporting industries, and gradually entering photovoltaic distributed systems, optical storage integration and related businesses, becoming one of the leaders in the global photovoltaic industry.
The integrated layout is accelerated, and N-type production capacity is replaced and upgraded. The company continues to strengthen its integrated layout to enhance its autonomous and controllable capabilities in the photovoltaic industry chain. Starting in 2022, the company has built silicon wafer production capacity in both Sichuan and Qinghai to improve the integrated layout. The company expects to build a production capacity of 50/75/95GW of silicon/cells/modules by the end of 2023 and 70/90/135GW of silicon/cells/modules by the end of 2024, laying a solid foundation for the continued growth of the company's shipments in the future. The new cells built in 2023 all use advanced TopCon technology, with a production capacity of 40 GW, making it one of the leading TopCon leaders in the industry.
Distributed systems and BOS products go hand in hand, and diversified businesses help increase profits. In terms of distributed systems business, the company's shipping scale grew rapidly. In the first half of 2023, distributed system sales exceeded 4.5GW, up 104.6% year on year. It is expected that as distributed photovoltaic development scale continues to grow, the company's distributed system business will still contribute impressive performance to the company; in terms of BOS products, the company's energy storage products and tracking bracket products are industry-leading; in 2023, the company's energy storage cell production capacity will gradually be released. With the implementation of production capacity, the company will use the business advantages of photovoltaic modules and tracking brackets to build a collaborative drive model for optical storage Industry collaboration integrates while optimizing revenue; the company has made remarkable progress in the field of tracking brackets. Tianhe Tracking has become the top eight tracking stent manufacturer in the world in total shipments. In 2022, tracking bracket shipments ranked in the top ten in the world and third in Asia. The company's diversified business development will enhance a new growth pole for the company's future development.
Profit forecast: We forecast that the company's revenue for 2023/2024/2025 will be 113,535/1117/124.4 billion yuan, net profit to mother will be 55.6/60.2/6.67 billion yuan, and EPS will be 2.55/2.76/3.06 yuan, respectively. The company's current stock price corresponds to the forecast EPS PE of 9/8/7 times. As one of the world's leaders, the company implements a global development strategy and a strategy of deeply integrated production capacity from the top down. Subsequently, the company's TopCon battery production capacity was gradually released, and the energy storage and distributed business developed steadily. In the future, the company's leading advantage will continue to be strengthened, and the first coverage was given a “gain” rating.
Risk warning: Risk of PV demand falling short of expectations; risk of PV production capacity being cleared less than expected; risk of rapid spread of leading PV technology; risk of trade barriers in overseas PV markets; risk of untimely update of research report usage information, etc.