Discussion of core competencies of automakers and changes in investment and research methodology: from multiple models to winning rates; rapidly and continuously increasing share for 21 years after full inclusion of autonomous and joint ventures, the “product cycle” will gradually fail after the pattern changes. Demand control and the pace of electrification show the importance of increasing share in the medium term. The core of demand control ability is the ability to re-research and regulate users beyond the “wheelbase-type” inherent system, and the products launched later evoke a defined level of empathy among users.
Product spectrum expansion: price with sinking+range growth → high voltage pure electric power to strengthen growth certainty; 1) core competency: accurate industry understanding and industry beta selection; 2) Product spectrum expansion: ① Range extension from 300,000 yuan to 20-30 thousand yuan: ② range extension → high voltage pure electricity: L7/8/9 (high-end 30-500,000 yuan PHEV SUV space 220,000 vehicles) → L6 (200,000 to 200,000 yuan PHEV SUV space, 230,000 vehicles) → high voltage pure electric (850,000 BEV SUV space of 200,000 yuan or more), and the audience expands by 40 The penetration rate of pure electric SUVs above 10,000 yuan still has a lot of room for improvement.
Why are you optimistic about the L6: it has sunk into a wider market, and the L series has established an excellent product reputation; 1) the ideal L6 sank to the 20-30 million yuan SUV market, which has space for nearly 2.6 million vehicles and is not fully covered by autonomous electric intelligence, and the new energy SUV space growth rate in this price segment is close to 190%; 2) The track pattern is good, and the congestion level is low, except for the World Series; 3) The L series has established an ideal reputation for excellence, and the L6 has a high win rate.
Why are you optimistic about high-voltage pure electricity: The increase range is only stage differentiation, and the bottom layer is still product definition; 1) Core competitiveness ②: Deep user research and rich and detailed product definitions. What is behind the explosive logic is not an increase in range+six seats, but the proposed solution can fully impress drivers and passengers. The increase range is only a phased differentiation capability.
2) The current time for pure electricity: ① first increase the range, then high-voltage pure electricity, dual-energy strategic products are at the right pace; ② rapid battery cost reduction; ③ the company's mature high-voltage fast charging technology+aggressive fast charging layout; ④ brand potential is gradually rising.
Why are you optimistic about MEGA's subsequent sales: Excellent product power, limited by energy supplementation systems in the short term; 1) Demand for household MPVs is increasing but there are many pain points: the high-end household MPV market continues to expand, but pain points such as storage space and performance urgently require the supply of high-quality products; 2) MEGA temporarily ranked second in the March 2024 pure electric MPV sales list, and its product power has been verified; 3) Limited by the number of supercharging stations in the city. Consumers are still anxious about the sales volume of MEGA and subsequent pure electric models after the completion of the urban overcharging network.
Investment rating: Taking into account the company's product strategy adjustments, we lowered the company's 24-year performance forecast. Before the adjustment, the estimated revenue for 24-25 was 2313.3003 billion yuan in that order, and net profit to mother was 151.4/21.82 billion yuan in that order. After the adjustment, the company's revenue for 24-26 is estimated to be 2002/2695/319.2 billion yuan; net profit attributable to mother is 137.3/229.1/3 billion yuan in that order, corresponding to 2024-2026 PE of 16.6X, 9.9X, and 7.2X, respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Industry growth is slowing down due to the slowdown in the penetration rate of new energy sources, increased industry competition due to increased supply of new models, risk that market acceptance of new models will fall short of expectations, and public data used in research reports may be delayed or not updated in a timely manner.