Recently, due to geographical risks in the Middle East, gold's gains have not abated. Spot gold once reached the 2,400 US dollar mark last Friday, once again reaching a record high. As of press release, it was $2349.69 per ounce.

In the early morning of the 14th local time, Iran launched a large-scale attack on Israel through missiles and drones, which meant that tension in the Middle East escalated once again.

Although rising geo-risk in the Middle East is driving safe-haven demand, the current rise also deviates from many other factors: it cannot be explained according to the Fed's policy logic, and the central bank's gold purchase cannot rationalize the record high. At the same time, the sharp rise in gold prices is also contrary to the outflow of gold ETFs. The “mysterious force” driving the rebound has left analysts very puzzled.

Can gold continue to rise? A number of major banks raised their target prices

Although the price of gold has reached a record high, Wall Street analysts generally expect that the strong price of gold will continue until at least the second half of this year.

Futu Information has compiled the target price predictions of various agencies for gold to provide users with reference:

UBS believes that the price of gold will rise to 4,000 US dollars per ounce within 2 to 3 years, adding that the real interest rate is still very high, and the recession still seems far away, so it is still too early to assert that the gold rally will end.

Historical data shows that the price of gold may be sluggish for a long time, but once it breaks through, the rise will often be rapid and intense. Here I define a “breakthrough” as the price of gold being 10% higher than the previous historical peak. If history repeats itself, then it's not too late to participate in the gold rally.

Bank of America commodity strategist Michael Widmer said that gold and silver are the most popular commodities for investors. Gold and silver are driven by central banks, Chinese investors, and more and more Western buyers. With the help of many factors, the price of gold is expected to rise to 3,000 US dollars per ounce by 2025.

Despite these macroeconomic factors driving up the price of gold, the performance of some traditional supporting factors is weak, and these factors are important for maintaining the bull market: the scale of asset management of physically supported ETFs has been declining, and non-commercial net positions have remained within a range. However, in fact, the long-standing positive correlation between the price of gold and physically backed ETFs has broken down, and the scale of asset management of these instruments has been declining.

Goldman Sachs analyst Nicholas Snowdon also raised the gold price forecast from $2,300 to $2,700 by the end of this year. He pointed out that in fact, since mid-2022, most of the rise in gold prices has been driven by “fear” of new incremental factors, including “fear” that the monetary system will be difficult to maintain, “fear” of currency depreciation by emerging market central banks, and “fear” about US fiscal sustainability and the general election.

Gold outperformed other assets during the interest rate cut cycle. Although interest rate cuts are yet to arrive, gold will continue to perform well, driven by central bank demand, US fiscal conditions, and geopolitical conditions.

Furthermore, according to the latest data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), investors' bullish sentiment on gold reached a four-year high. Specifically, investors' net long positions on COMEX gold increased by 929 lots last week to 179,142 contracts, a four-year high.

International gold price frenzy, what investment opportunities can we pay attention to?

Earlier, some analysts said that as the price of gold continues to hit new highs, stocks linked to gold have continued to move upward. The following are the gold-related investment targets for Hong Kong and US stocks compiled by Futu News for your reference:

• US gold stocks and ETFs

Gold ETF:

$SPDR Gold ETF (GLD.US)$,$VanEck Gold Miners Equity ETF (GDX.US)$,$VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ.US)$,$Ishares Inc Msci Global Gold Miners Etf (RING.US)$,$Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS.US)$,$Gold Trust Ishares (IAU.US)$.

Among them,$SPDR Gold ETF (GLD.US)$It is one of the most liquid commodity ETFs. It began trading in 2004, expanding the potential market for gold. Prior to GLD, investors in the gold market were limited to physical gold bars and coins, futures contracts, and gold mining stocks.

Leveraged products:$MICROSECTORS GOLD MINERS 3X LEVERAGED ETN (GDXU.US)$,$Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bull 2X Shares (JNUG.US)$,$Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 2X Shares (NUGT.US)$.

US gold stocks:

$Barrick Gold (GOLD.US)$,$Franco-Nevada (FNV.US)$,$Agnico Eagle (AEM.US)$,$Sibanye Stillwater (SBSW.US)$,$Gold Fields (GFI.US)$,$Newmont (NEM.US)$,$Agnico Eagle (AEM.US)$,$SSR Mining (SSRM.US)$.

• Hong Kong gold stocks and ETFs

Gold ETF:$SPDR Gold Trust (02840.HK)$,$Value Gold ETF (03081.HK)$,$Hang Seng RMB Gold ETF (83168.HK)$.

Hong Kong gold stocks:$ZIJIN MINING (02899.HK)$,$ZHAOJIN MINING (01818.HK)$,$CHINAGOLDINTL (02099.HK)$,$SD GOLD (01787.HK)$,$LINGBAO GOLD (03330.HK)$.

editor/tolk