① There are multiple signs that global semiconductor sales are recovering at an accelerated pace. Which signals are most worth paying attention to? ② The domestic semiconductor boom is strengthening at the same time. How strong is the recovery?
Financial Services Association, April 15 (Editor Feng Yi) The semiconductor sector of Hong Kong stocks was active against the market today. As of press release, Jingmen Semiconductor (02878.HK) rose nearly 4%, SMIC (00981.HK) rose more than 2%, and Shanghai Fudan (01385.HK) and Becker Micro (02149.HK) followed suit.
According to the news, multiple data have successively verified that the global semiconductor industry is entering a new upward cycle, attracting market attention.
According to data released by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics Organization (WSTS), global semiconductor sales increased 16.3% year on year in February 2024, achieving year-on-year growth for 4 consecutive months, showing a gradual strengthening of the upward trend in the industry.
Tianfeng Securities analysts Pan Wei and Luo Yiyang said in the April 12 report that AI is expected to be the main driving force for this round of upward cycle. Industry inventories are expected to return to normal levels in the first half of the year, and some sectors are also expected to prioritize inventory replenishment.
On the other hand, recent export data from the world's major semiconductor manufacturing centers is also very impressive, which is also representative.
According to data released by Korea's Ministry of Science and ICT, South Korea's ICT product exports increased 19.4% year-on-year in March to US$18.8 billion, achieving the fifth consecutive month of growth, driven by a recovery in semiconductor demand.
Among them, South Korea's chip exports rose 33.9% year on year in March to reach 11.7 billion US dollars. It recorded a double-digit increase for five consecutive months and hit a new high since June 2022.
As the world's largest foundry company, TSMC's consolidated revenue for March 2024 was approximately NT$19.211 billion, up 7.5% month-on-month and 34.3% year-on-year, which also brought a positive signal to industry trends.
In addition, A-share semiconductor equipment leader Beifang Huachuang (002371.SZ) released a performance forecast. The net profit for the first quarter is expected to be 1.04 billion yuan to 1.2 billion yuan, an increase of 75.77%-102.81% over the previous year. It has become a catalyst for triggering short-term markets in the semiconductor sector.
Also, according to the recently released monthly report of the Jiwei League Safety Ball Semiconductor Sentiment Index, China's semiconductor sentiment index was 51.29 in March, an increase of 2.17 compared to the previous month. After two consecutive months of sluggishness, it once again returned above the boom and bust line.
Zou Chen, an analyst at Zhongyuan Securities, also pointed out in the April 12 monthly report that the semiconductor industry is currently at the bottom of the cycle, and the valuation is lower than the median value of nearly ten years. Consumer demand is gradually recovering.
WSTS also anticipates strong growth in the global semiconductor market in 2024, which is expected to grow 13.1% year over year and reach a market size of 588 billion US dollars. Growth is expected to be mainly driven by the memory industry. The memory industry alone is expected to reach about 130 billion US dollars in 2024, an increase of more than 40% over the previous year.