Dashang Co., Ltd. (600694): 2023 performance falls short of expectations, focus on deepening progress in asset operations

2023 业绩低于我们预期

公司公布2023 业绩：实现收入73.3 亿元，同比增长0.7%，归母净利润5.1亿元，同比下滑8.0%，低于我们预期，我们认为主因区域消费恢复情况相对较缓，且超市业态受行业竞争影响承压较明显，扣非净利润4.6 亿元，同比增长19.0%。同时公司拟每10 股派发现金红利10 元，每10 股送红股1 股，对应分红比例56.3%。

分季度看，Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 营收同比分别+3.2%/+5.4%/-11.1%/+7.0%，归母净利润同比分别-8.5%/-26.6%/+18.6%/+27.6%，扣非净利润同比分别-9.0%/+15.9%/+86.5%/+174.3%。

发展趋势

1、2023 年区域消费恢复较慢，超市等业态经营承压。1）分业态看，2023年百货/超市/家电连锁营收分别同比+1.8%/-12.7%/+42.5%，公司认为行业格局趋于分散、去中心化明显，竞争仍在加剧；2）分地区看，主要经营区域大连、大庆、牡丹江地区收入分别同比+12.5%/-0.6%/-4.7%，大部分区域营收均有承压；3）分渠道看，2023 年公司亏损门店持续闭店，净关线下门店3 家（新开3 家大商电器，关闭6 家超市、百货门店），期末门店总数107家；线上渠道竞争亦加剧，入驻商家数量较上年末增加88 家至207 家，但GMV/销售额分别同降6.9%/7.0%至3.7/2.1 亿元。

2、2023 年盈利能力有所恢复。2023 年公司毛利率同比增长0.76ppt 至38.8% ，其中百货/ 超市/ 家电业态分别同比分别+2.8/+0.1/-3.2ppt 至50.1%/6.6%/15.1%，我们预计家电业态毛利率下滑主因新开门店促销等影响。费用率方面，公司销售费用率同降0.82ppt 至11.9%，管理+研发费用率同降0.16ppt 至10.9%，财务费用率同降0.06ppt 至2.0%，整体降本增效成效良好。综合影响下归母净利率同降0.66ppt 至6.9%，主因上年非流动资产处置收益较高，扣非净利率同增0.96ppt 至6.2%。

3、关注资产运营深化进展。公司于东北区域具备一定物业资源优势，2023年持续推进传统老店改造提升，后续计划2024 年重点推进城市乐园建设、闲置房产盘活，通过对旗下存量房产、土地、店铺和空柜等资产的开发、建设、租售和运营，持续盘活休眠资源，关注公司经营转型与资产运营进展。

盈利预测与估值

由于区域消费恢复进程不及预期，下调公司2024 年盈利预测11%至5.66 亿元，同时引入2025 年盈利预测6.19 亿元，当前股价对应24/25 年9.8/9.0 倍P/E。维持跑赢行业评级，考虑到公司持续进行资产盘活、优化，暂维持公司目标价20 元，对应24/25 年10.4/9.5 倍P/E，较当前股价有6%上行空间。

风险

行业竞争加剧；消费持续疲软。

2023 results fall short of our expectations

The company announced 2023 results: achieved revenue of 7.33 billion yuan, up 0.7% year on year, net profit of 510 million yuan, down 8.0% year on year, lower than our expectations. We believe that the main reason is that regional consumption recovery is relatively slow, and the supermarket business is clearly under pressure due to industry competition. After deducting non-net profit of 460 million yuan, an increase of 19.0% year on year. At the same time, the company plans to pay a cash dividend of 10 yuan for every 10 shares and 1 bonus share for every 10 shares, corresponding to a dividend ratio of 56.3%.

On a quarterly basis, Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 revenue was +3.2%/+5.4%/-11.1%/+7.0% year-on-year, and net profit to mother was -8.5%/-26.6%/+18.6%/+27.6% year-on-year, after deducting non-net profit -9.0%/+15.9%/+86.5%/+174.3% year-on-year.

Development trends

1. The recovery of regional consumption was slow in 2023, and the operation of supermarkets and other business formats was under pressure. 1) By business type, department store/supermarket/home appliance chain revenue in 2023 was +1.8%/-12.7%/+42.5%, respectively. The company believes that the industry pattern tends to be scattered and decentralized, and competition is still intensifying; 2) By region, revenue in the main business regions of Dalian, Daqing, and Mudanjiang regions was +12.5%/-0.6%/-4.7%, respectively, and revenue in most regions was under pressure; 3) By channel, the company continued to close its loss-making stores in 2023, and 3 new offline stores were opened (3) Jiadashang Electric Appliances closed 6 supermarkets and department stores Stores), the total number of stores at the end of the period was 107; online channel competition also intensified. The number of registered merchants increased by 88 to 207 compared to the end of the previous year, but GMV/sales also fell 6.9%/7.0% to 37/210 million yuan, respectively.

2. Profitability recovered in 2023. The company's gross margin increased by 0.76ppt to 38.8% year on year in 2023, with department store/ supermarket/ home appliance business +2.8/+0.1/-3.2ppt to 50.1%/6.6%/15.1%, respectively. We expect the decline in gross margin of the home appliance industry mainly due to the impact of new store promotions, etc. In terms of cost ratio, the company's sales expense ratio decreased by 0.82ppt to 11.9%, management+R&D expenses decreased by 0.16ppt to 10.9%, and financial expenses also decreased by 0.06ppt to 2.0%. The overall cost reduction and efficiency results were good. The net profit margin decreased by 0.66ppt to 6.9% due to the combined impact, mainly due to the higher return on disposal of non-current assets in the previous year, after deducting the same increase of 0.96ppt to 6.2%.

3. Follow the deepening progress of asset operations. The company has certain property resource advantages in the Northeast region. It will continue to promote the renovation and upgrading of traditional old stores in 2023. The follow-up plan will focus on promoting the construction of urban parks and revitalizing vacant properties in 2024. Through the development, construction, rental and operation of its existing assets such as real estate, land, stores and empty cabinets, the company will continue to revitalize dormant resources and pay attention to the company's business transformation and asset operation progress.

Profit forecasting and valuation

As the regional consumption recovery process fell short of expectations, the company's profit forecast for 2024 was lowered by 11% to 566 million yuan, and a profit forecast of 619 million yuan for 2025 was introduced. The current stock price corresponds to 9.8/9.0 times P/E for 24/25. Maintaining an outperforming industry rating, considering the company's continued asset revitalization and optimization, the company's target price of 20 yuan is temporarily maintained, corresponding to 10.4/9.5 times P/E in 24/25, with 6% room for an increase of 6% compared to the current stock price.

risks

Competition in the industry intensifies; consumption continues to weaken.

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大商股份(600694)：2023年业绩低于预期 关注资产运营深化进展

Dashang Co., Ltd. (600694): 2023 performance falls short of expectations, focus on deepening progress in asset operations

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大商股份(600694)：2023年业绩低于预期关注资产运营深化进展