Key points of investment:
The company released a performance forecast for the first quarter of 2024: during the reporting period, the company expects to achieve operating income of 650-720 million yuan, an increase of 28.60%-42.45%; the net profit due to mother is expected to be 0.94-115 million yuan, an increase of 63.65%-100.20%; and the net profit without return to mother is expected to be 0.91 to 112 million yuan, an increase of 79.04%-120.36% year on year, and the results for the single quarter have increased significantly.
Downstream demand for long-chain dibasic acids picked up, sebacic acid substitution continued, and 24Q1 performance increased significantly compared to the same period.
The company is a pioneer in the field of biological manufacturing in China. In 2003, it industrialized biological long-chain diacid, and gradually completed market replacement for similar chemical products, leading the market share in the world. In 2023, due to factors such as the international market environment and industry, especially the decline in sales in the European market, the company's sales of long-chain dibasic acid fell short of expectations. However, since 2024, downstream demand has continued to pick up. The company has seized market opportunities, increased product sales efforts, and made every effort to expand the new product sebacic acid market and increase customer share. The product is gradually replicating the company's process of replacing lauric acid with chemical methods. Therefore, the rapid recovery of 24Q1's long-chain binary acid business led to a significant increase in performance compared to the same period last year.
Continue to promote bio-based polyamide application development, strengthen market promotion with China Merchants Group, and open up new growth space with collaborative development. In 2023, the company announced a fixed increase plan. It plans to issue shares to Shanghai Yaoqin (to be established) to raise no more than 6.6 billion yuan. China Merchants Group is expected to indirectly hold more than 5% of the company's shares through Shanghai Yaoqin. At the same time, the company and China Merchants Group signed a “Business Cooperation Agreement”. According to the agreement, the amount of bio-based polyamide resin purchased and used by China Merchants Biotech in 2023-2025 was not less than 10,000 tons, respectively. China Merchants Group's main business involves many fields such as shipping, ports, shipping, finance, real estate, energy, etc., and combines the company's bio-based materials with China Merchants Bureau's resource endowments to jointly develop bio-based polyamide fiber composites, pultrusion processes, and application technologies in the fields of containers, construction, photovoltaics, logistics, etc., providing a broad range of application scenarios for synthetic biological manufacturing.
Investment analysis opinion: Temporarily maintain the company's 2023-2025 net profit forecast of 3.67, 5.92, and 917 million yuan. The current market value corresponds to PE of 60, 37, and 24X, maintaining the “increase in holdings” rating.
Risk warning: 1) Risk of uncertainty about new project construction progress, product delivery progress and sales; 2) risk of core technology leakage, loss of technical personnel, and delays in technology research and development; 3) risk of large fluctuations in raw materials and energy prices.