Investors in Jiangsu Guoxin Corp. Ltd. (SZSE:002608) had a good week, as its shares rose 5.3% to close at CN¥8.39 following the release of its annual results. Statutory earnings per share of CN¥0.50 unfortunately missed expectations by 18%, although it was encouraging to see revenues of CN¥35b exceed expectations by 2.4%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
After the latest results, the three analysts covering Jiangsu Guoxin are now predicting revenues of CN¥36.8b in 2024. If met, this would reflect an okay 6.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 54% to CN¥0.76. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥36.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.85 in 2024. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the real cut to new EPS forecasts.
The consensus price target held steady at CN¥8.76, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Jiangsu Guoxin's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 6.6% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 12% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.8% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Jiangsu Guoxin is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Jiangsu Guoxin. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Jiangsu Guoxin analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Jiangsu Guoxin (1 shouldn't be ignored!) that we have uncovered.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.