工程业务方面，24Q1 新签设计咨询订单390 万元，在手订单规模16.4 亿元，此前公司签约北方华锦13.07 亿元化工工程订单，截至24Q1，该项目实现营业收入554.90 万元，累计收款1.33 亿元，参考公司工程业务净利率水平，假设该项目净利率为18%，可为公司贡献2.35 亿元左右净利润，此外鲁油鲁炼项目设计工作已于1 月17 日起正式启动，或给24-25 年工程业绩释放提供较好支撑。新材料方面，公司醋酸丁酸纤维素产品优化提升技改项目、纤维素衍生物及其配套装置改造提升项目均计划于24 年6 月开工，分别预计于24 年12 月、25 年12 月竣工。达产后有望新增异辛酸产能5 万吨/年、纤维素及衍生物产能1.5 万吨/年，未来或给公司业绩带来新的增长点。First-quarter results showed a high year-on-year increase, focusing on the speed of project order carry-over
The company achieved operating income of 519 million yuan in 24Q1, or -13.28% year over year, and achieved net profit of 58 million yuan, net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 0.56 million yuan, +28.8% year over year. We judge that this is also related to the relatively low base for the same period in '23. There is a clear trend of quarterly improvement in performance since the second half of '23. It is expected that with ongoing engineering orders being carried forward, subsequent performance will continue to grow steadily. The company's total cash dividend in '23 was 190 million yuan, with a cash dividend ratio of 69%. The dividend rate corresponding to the closing of April 12 was 5.03%. At the same time, the company announced that it plans to pay an interim dividend in 24H1. By the end of 24Q1, the company's cash (monetary capital+transactional financial assets+debt investment) totaled 1,884 billion yuan, accounting for 48.5% of the market value. It is recommended to focus on medium- to long-term investment value.
New materials projects are progressing gradually, creating a second growth curve
In terms of engineering business, 24Q1 signed a new design consulting order of 3.9 million yuan, with an order scale of 1.64 billion yuan. Previously, the company signed a chemical engineering order of 1,307 million yuan from North Huajin. As of 24Q1, the project achieved operating income of 5.549 million yuan and cumulative revenue of 133 million yuan. Referring to the company's net interest rate level, assuming a net interest rate of 18% of the project, it can contribute about 235 million yuan in net profit to the company. Furthermore, the design work for the Luyou and Lu refining project was officially launched on January 17, or gave 24-25 year project performance The release provides better support. In terms of new materials, the company's cellulose acetate butyrate product optimization and upgrading project and the upgrading project for cellulose derivatives and their supporting devices are all scheduled to start construction in June '24, and are expected to be completed in December '24 and December '25, respectively. After delivery, it is expected to add 50,000 tons/year of isobutyric acid production capacity and 15,000 tons/year of cellulose and derivatives production capacity, which may bring new growth points to the company's performance in the future.
Profitability increased steadily and cash flow improved markedly
The gross margin of the 24Q1 company was 19.9%, +0.96pct year on year, and the cost ratio for the period was 10.72%, +1.16pct year on year. Among them, sales/management/R&D/finance expenses were 1.0%/5.6%/-0.5%, respectively, +0.2/+0.5/-0.03pct year on year, respectively. The total asset and credit impairment losses surged back to $11 billion and +013 million yuan year on year. Under the combined impact, net profit margin was +2.57 pct to 10.32% year on year. In '23, the company's CFO net amount was 72 million yuan, or +135 million yuan. The revenue ratio was +43.2pct to 141.3% year over year, and the cash flow improved markedly. The cash flow improved markedly. We believe this was mainly due to the large collection of payments from the North China Huajin Project contracted by the company in the first quarter.
Continue to be optimistic about medium- to long-term growth and maintain a “buy” rating
The company has plenty of orders in hand, and new material projects are progressing steadily, and performance is expected to gradually increase in the future. We continue to be optimistic about the company's medium- to long-term growth and maintain the previous forecast. The company's net profit for 24-26 is 3.2/36/420 million yuan, +13.7%/+13.6%/+15.2% year-on-year, respectively. Corresponding PE is 12.1, 10.6, and 9.2 times, respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: The settlement of engineering orders fell short of expectations; the cash dividend ratio fell short of expectations; the decline in the chemical industry exceeded expectations.
