Hot news

• Federal Reserve Officials Interpret March CPI “Explosion”: We Value PCE Data More

On Friday local time, Chicago Federal Reserve Chairman Goulsby said that although it is worrying that the consumer price index (CPI) continues to rise, he is more concerned about the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation index, the personal consumer expenditure price index (PCE). He said, “If we start to see better data showing that inflation is falling, it will make us feel much better about where we are now. If PCE also reflects a resurgence in inflation, we will stabilize prices.”

• Federal Reserve Collins: Inflation will continue to slow, and interest rates are expected to be cut twice this year

Boston Federal Reserve Chairman Collins said that interest rates are expected to be cut twice this year, and it is expected that it will take time for the inflation rate to return to the target level. “I still anticipate that demand will begin to slow and continue until the end of 2024, which will help reduce inflation later this year,” she said.

• US consumer confidence in Michigan declined in April, and inflation expectations rebounded across the board

According to data released last Friday, the initial value of consumer confidence in Michigan in the US fell short of expectations in April. The final value of consumer confidence unexpectedly hit a three-year high in March. In April, people's short-term and long-term inflation expectations both rose markedly from the previous month. The outlook for US inflation is bleak, affecting consumer confidence.

• For the first time in 100 years, Biden has taken action against the oil and gas industry!

According to media reports, Biden comprehensively cracked down on the oil and gas industry before the November election, raised royalties and fees for extracting oil on federal land, and increased or increased the company's drilling costs. The US Land Administration finalized a rule on Friday that raised the rate drillers must pay the government to the highest level since 1920 and raised the security deposit to cover clean-up costs to the highest level since 1960.

• Bitcoin rebounds after Iran slumps as it says “operation is over” after attacking Israel

After attacking mainland Israel for the first time in Iran's history, the Iranian military recently stated that the military operation has ended and the armed forces are on alert. Furthermore, the Israeli military said that the attack only caused “minor damage” to an Israeli military base, and most of the missiles launched by Iran were intercepted. Affected by this, Bitcoin rebounded slightly after plummeting, and has now recovered the $65,000 mark.

• Wall Street raised gold price expectations one after another: Goldman Sachs 2700, Bank of America 3000, UBS 4000!

Goldman Sachs believes that the power of “fear” will raise the price of gold to 2,700 US dollars/ounce by the end of this year. Goldman Sachs pointed out in the report that since mid-2022, most of the rise in gold prices has been driven by “fear” of new incremental factors, including “fear” that the monetary system will be difficult to maintain, fear of currency depreciation by emerging market central banks, and “fear” about US fiscal sustainability and the general election. Furthermore, Bank of America gave a target price of 3,000 US dollars/ounce, and UBS predicted that the price of gold would reach 4,000 US dollars/ounce.

Resumption of US stock trading

• Inflation concerns compounded geopolitical risks, and all three indices fell more than 1%

The three major US stock indices collectively closed down. The Dow fell 1.24%, a cumulative decline of 2.37% last week, the NASDAQ fell 1.62%, a cumulative decline of 0.45% last week, the S&P 500 index fell 1.46%, and a cumulative decline of 1.56% last week.

Popular technology stocks generally fell, with Intel falling more than 5%, Nvidia, Tesla, and Meta falling more than 2%, and Microsoft and Google falling more than 1%.

Popular Chinese securities generally fell. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 4.58% and fell 3.22% last week. Xiaopeng Motors fell nearly 10%, NIO fell more than 7%, iQiyi and Bilibili fell more than 6%, JD and NetEase fell more than 5%, and Alibaba, Baidu, Ideal Auto, and Pinduoduo fell more than 4%.

• Big 50% price cut! Tesla's monthly rent for fully automated driving is now just $99

In the early morning of April 13, Beijing time, Musk posted on the X platform announcing that in the US market,$Tesla (TSLA.US)$Fully automated driving (FSD) with human supervision now only costs $99/month; it used to be $199/month. Some analysts pointed out that Musk's move is aimed at promoting the popularization of its autonomous driving assistance systems before the first quarter earnings report is released, so as to obtain more driving data to achieve his goal of launching Tesla Robotaxi in August.

• Tesla's August Robotaxi Plan Is Being Questioned Again

According to Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives,$Tesla (TSLA.US)$Robotaxi and Model 2 should be promoted simultaneously. If Tesla sees Robotaxi as a solution to replace Model 2, this would be a serious strategic mistake. He believes that although Robotaxi has broad prospects, at this stage, as a more affordable car option, the Model 2 is more urgent to meet the needs of large-scale markets around the world.

• Eliminating the biggest risk of “weight loss elixir”! European Medicines Agency: Drugs such as Wegovy have nothing to do with suicide

Last Friday local time, the European Medicines Agency (EMA) announced that after a lengthy review, there was no evidence$Novo-Nordisk A/S (NVO.US)$GLP-1 drugs such as Wegovy, its “magic drug for weight loss”, increase the risk of suicide or self-harm.

• The bears won! Trump's purest concept stock market value shrunk by nearly half in two weeks

$Trump Media & Technology (DJT.US)$The cumulative decline this month reached 47%, and the market value evaporated by nearly half. According to data from Ihor Dusaniwsky, head of prediction and analysis at S3 Partners, as of last week, DJT's short interest (short interest) was US$208.7 million, and the number of shares shorted (shorted shares) was 5.44 million shares. DJT currently has 136.7 million shares in circulation. Dusaniwsky said that a week ago, traders who wanted to short DJT shares had to pay up to 900% of annual financing costs. This meant they needed DJT to drop $30 per share in a month to break even. Since then, however, the cost of financing DJT shorting deals has dropped drastically to 200%.

• The benefits of high interest rates are dissipating. The net interest income of major Wall Street banks was “warned”, and J.P. Morgan Chase plummeted 6%

$JPMorgan (JPM.US)$The net interest income outlook for the full year was slightly lower than analysts' expectations, and the fee guidance for the full year was raised, causing the stock price to fall last Friday. Analysts believe this indicates that the benefits of high interest rates to the bank may be weakening, while facing more pressure to pay savers. By the close, J.P. Morgan was down more than 6%.

• ExxonMobil approves sixth oil development project in Guyana

$Exxon Mobil (XOM.US)$A few days ago, it was announced that after obtaining the required government and regulatory approvals, ExxonMobil made a final investment decision on the Whiptail development project off the coast of Guyana. Whiptail is the sixth project in the Stabroek block and is expected to increase daily production by about 250,000 barrels by the end of 2027.

Top 20 US stock turnover

Hong Kong Market Outlook

• Beishui continues to buy the Bank of China for nearly HK$400 million

On April 12 (last Friday), Southbound made a net purchase of HK$6.145 billion in Hong Kong stocks.

$BANK OF CHINA (03988.HK)$,$CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK)$,$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$Received net purchases of HK$387 million, HK$355 million and HK$209 million respectively;

$ANTA SPORTS (02020.HK)$,$LI AUTO-W (02015.HK)$,$TENCENT (00700.HK)$Net sales were HK$155 million, HK$49.11 million, and HK$45.37 million respectively.

Today's attention

Keywords: US monthly retail sales rate in March, US April New York Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index, Dallas Federal Reserve Chairman Logan's panel discussion at the IMF-Bank of Japan meeting, Goldman Sachs results

On Monday, in terms of economic data, the monthly retail sales rate for the US for March and the US New York Federal Reserve manufacturing index for April will be released soon.

In terms of financial events, Dallas Federal Reserve Chairman Logan attended a panel discussion at the IMF-Bank of Japan meeting.

In terms of financial reports,$Goldman Sachs (GS.US)$,$Charles Schwab (SCHW.US)$Results will be announced in advance for US stocks; Hong Kong stocks$CHENMING PAPER (01812.HK)$,$ALLIED GROUP (00373.HK)$The latest results will be revealed soon.

Futubull Chen read:

A great enterprise is defined as follows: a company that can still maintain its status as a great enterprise for 25 or 30 years.

—Warren Buffett

editor/tolk