This week's big schedule at a glance

• The US retail sales data for March, which will be released on Monday, and the Beige Book on the state of the economy released by the Federal Reserve on Thursday are the focus of this week.

US retail sales data is known as “horror data” because it usually has a big impact on financial markets. Analysts generally expect retail sales to increase 0.3% month-on-month in March, down from 0.6% last month, showing signs of weak consumption. Analysts pointed out that the Easter holiday brought some spending forward to March, and the April data may continue to decline.

The Federal Reserve is about to release the Economic Situation Survey Report prepared by 12 local Federal Reserve Banks — the Beige Book. Inflation, employment, and economic prospects. The US economic situation is one of the important factors for Federal Reserve officials to consider in deciding future monetary policy. The market will obtain information on the state of the US economy at the end of the first quarter.

• Powell and a group of Federal Reserve officials delivered a speech. Expressions on economic prospects and policy paths will become the focus of the market.

Currently, the market expects that the point where the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time may be postponed until September. Furthermore, the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's total interest rate cut during the year have fallen back to less than 50 basis points. This indicates that the further hawkish tendencies of the Federal Reserve will not have much impact on investors until the May and June policy meetings.

The risk that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates this year may not be ignored, given that inflation has surged unexpectedly since it soared in 2021, and more importantly, considering that policymakers have underestimated the sustainability of inflation time and time again.

• The Q1 earnings season for US stocks has reached its peak, and Netflix will be the first star technology stock to announce results

Next, giants such as Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Asmack, TSMC, and Netflix will successively announce their results, and the company's profitability will be tested again.

• The tense situation in the Middle East continues to be the focus! Follow trends in crude oil, gold, etc.

In the early morning of April 14, Beijing time, Iran launched a large-scale attack on Israel through missiles and drones, which meant that tension in the Middle East escalated once again.

Since Iran launched the attack over the weekend, the impact of this conflict on global financial markets will not ferment until next Monday. How the situation in the Middle East will evolve is also one of the biggest highlights next week.

Risk aversion in the market is high, and assets such as precious metals and crude oil have risen sharply. Gold prices have once again reached record highs, and oil prices have jumped to the highest level since October last year.

• China and Japan will release a series of major economic data, including China's annual GDP for the first quarter and Japan's core CPI annual rate for March

Japan's inflation rose sharply in February after a year of decline. The core CPI growth rate increased from 2.0% to 2.8% year over year, while the Bank of Japan is targeting an inflation rate of 2%. However, while overall CPI is expected to rise more moderately, the core CPI growth rate is expected to slow to 2.6% year over year.

Investors are still questioning whether Japan's inflationary pressure will accelerate sharply again from now on, so the market's expectations for further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan are still low, and this has been putting pressure on the yen.

This week's key performance calendar

Monday April 15

Keywords: US monthly retail sales rate in March, US April New York Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index, Dallas Federal Reserve Chairman Logan's panel discussion at the IMF-Bank of Japan meeting, Goldman Sachs results

On Monday, in terms of economic data, the monthly retail sales rate for the US for March and the US New York Federal Reserve manufacturing index for April will be released soon.

In terms of financial events, Dallas Federal Reserve Chairman Logan attended a panel discussion at the IMF-Bank of Japan meeting.

In terms of financial reports,$Goldman Sachs (GS.US)$,$Charles Schwab (SCHW.US)$Results will be announced in advance for US stocks; Hong Kong stocks$CHENMING PAPER (01812.HK)$,$ALLIED GROUP (00373.HK)$The latest results will be revealed soon.

Tuesday, April 16

Keywords: China's annual GDP for the first quarter, annual rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods in March, annual value added rate of industries above the scale of March, speeches by Federal Reserve officials, Joint Health/Bank of America performance

On Tuesday, in terms of economic data, investors need to pay close attention to China's annual GDP rate for the first quarter, the annual rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods in March, and the annual value added rate of industries above the March scale.

In terms of financial events, the State Information Office held a press conference on the operation of the national economy. Additionally, in 2024, the FOMC voting committee, San Francisco Federal Reserve Chairman Daley, and Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson will deliver speeches, and investors will focus their attention.

In terms of financial reports, US stocks$UnitedHealth (UNH.US)$,$Bank of America (BAC.US)$Results will be announced before the market.

Wednesday April 17th

Keywords: Powell and other Fed official speeches, Asmack/Abbott performance

On Wednesday, in terms of economic data, the US will release EIA crude oil inventories and strategic oil reserve inventories for the week up to April 12.

In terms of financial events, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell participated in a question and answer session. FOMC Permanent Voting Committee, New York Federal Reserve Chairman Williams, 2024 FOMC Voting Committee, and Richmond Federal Reserve Chairman Barkin will deliver speeches.

In terms of financial reports, US stocks$ASML Holding (ASML.US)$,$Abbott Laboratories (ABT.US)$Results will be announced before the market.

Thursday April 18th

Keywords: number of US jobless claims for the week up to April 13, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index for April, the Beige Book on the economic situation announced by the Federal Reserve, speeches by Federal Reserve officials, TSMC/Netflix performance

On Thursday, in terms of economic data, the number of jobless claims in the US for the week ending April 13 and the Philadelphia Federal Reserve manufacturing index for April are worth paying attention to.

In terms of financial events, the Federal Reserve published the Beige Book on the state of the economy. The US economic situation is one of the important factors for Federal Reserve officials to consider when deciding on future monetary policy.

Furthermore, Federal Reserve officials will be speaking out intensively, including the 2024 FOMC Voting Committee, Cleveland Federal Reserve Chairman Mester, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman, New York Federal Reserve Chairman Williams, 2024 FOMC Voting Committee, and Atlanta Federal Reserve Chairman Bostic.

In terms of financial reports, US stocks$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$Results will be announced before the market,$Netflix (NFLX.US)$The new quarterly results will be announced after the market, and investors all need to focus their attention.

Friday April 19

Keywords: Japan's March core CPI annual rate, Fed official speech, P&G/ American Express performance

On Friday, in terms of economic data, Japan's March CPI data is worth focusing on.

Japan's inflation rose sharply in February after a year of decline. The core CPI growth rate increased from 2.0% to 2.8% year over year, while the Bank of Japan is targeting an inflation rate of 2%. However, while overall CPI is expected to rise more moderately, the core CPI growth rate is expected to slow to 2.6% year over year.

In terms of financial events, Atlanta Federal Reserve Chairman Bostic delivered a speech on economic prospects, monetary policy, and real estate issues; Chicago Federal Reserve Chairman Goulsby participated in the question-and-answer session.

In terms of financial reports,$Procter & Gamble (PG.US)$,$American Express (AXP.US)$Earnings will be released before the US stock market.

Good luck with your investments in the new week!

Editor/Somer