投资建议：公司业绩符合预期，考虑到行业国产替代持续推进、传统下游景气度回升与新业务拓展顺利，公司业绩有望快速增长，维持2024-2025 年EPS 为1.14/1.34 元，新增2026 年EPS 为1.60 元，参考可比公司，给予公司2024 年19 倍PE，上调目标价至21.66 元，增持。Introduction to this report:
The company has been deeply involved in the valve industry for 20 years. It has a wide business layout, downstream dispersion, and strong cyclical resistance. In the context of domestic substitution, the traditional downstream boom is improving, and new businesses such as superposition of new energy and nuclear power are expanding rapidly, and the company's performance is expected to grow rapidly.
Key points of investment:
Investment suggestions: The company's performance is in line with expectations. Considering the continued advancement of domestic substitution in the industry, the recovery in traditional downstream prosperity and the smooth expansion of new business, the company's performance is expected to grow rapidly, maintaining the 2024-2025 EPS of 1.14/1.34 yuan, adding 1.60 yuan to 2026. Referring to comparable companies, the company will be given 19 times PE in 2024, and the target price will be raised to 21.66 yuan to increase its holdings.
The performance was in line with expectations. The company announced that in 2023, it achieved revenue of 5,544 billion yuan/ +36.59%, net profit attributable to mother of 722 million yuan/ +54.85%; net profit not attributable to mother of 744 million yuan/ +67.85%. In the fourth quarter, we achieved revenue of 1,305 million yuan/YoY +18.03% /-28.18% month-on-month, and net profit to mother of 133 million yuan/YoY +11.7% /4.7.06% month-on-month.
The traditional downstream boom is maintained, and new businesses are growing rapidly. 1) Traditional downstream helps the valve manufacturing industry grow, global power generation from renewable energy is steadily increasing, and global energy demand is bringing high demand to the industrial valve industry; 2) LNG and hydrogen energy: Europe's demand for energy such as LNG has increased due to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict; the Middle East energy transformation accelerates hydrogen energy construction to release more valve demand; 3) Offshore:
Domestic orders for LNG ships and FPSO ships have increased dramatically, and the industry's localization replacement is expected to accelerate, and orders will gradually be released; 4) Nuclear power: In the future, it is expected that 6-8 nuclear power units will be disclosed every year, and the value of valves required for single units is about 500 million; 5) Ethylene: Domestic ethylene project construction is gradually developing, and all are expected to release orders.
New products continue to break through. The company insists on new product research and development and actively promotes process technology upgrades. In 2023, the BDO (butylene glycol) device broke through technology breakthroughs in ultra-high pressure stop valve technology to get rid of domestic equipment's dependence on imports; successfully delivered a 96-inch 300LB large high-temperature three-eccentric butterfly valve to fill domestic gaps; the company's large-caliber ultra-low temperature butterfly valve passed localization and batch supply, making it the first in China; the company's liquid hydrogen valve achieved breakthroughs in R&D and orders, and product performance has reached the world's advanced level.
Risk warning: falling oil prices have led to a reduction in downstream capital expenditure, the expansion of polysilicon production falls short of expectations, etc.
