With a median price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of close to 17x in the United States, you could be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Boot Barn Holdings, Inc.'s (NYSE:BOOT) P/E ratio of 18.3x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/E ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.
Boot Barn Holdings' negative earnings growth of late has neither been better nor worse than most other companies. It seems that few are expecting the company's earnings performance to deviate much from most other companies, which has held the P/E back. If you still like the company, you'd want its earnings trajectory to turn around before making any decisions. In saying that, existing shareholders probably aren't too pessimistic about the share price if the company's earnings continue tracking the market.
What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/E?
Boot Barn Holdings' P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the market.
Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 3.9%. However, a few very strong years before that means that it was still able to grow EPS by an impressive 285% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, while they would have preferred to keep the run going, shareholders would probably welcome the medium-term rates of earnings growth.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the analysts covering the company suggest earnings growth is heading into negative territory, declining 7.1% over the next year. With the market predicted to deliver 11% growth , that's a disappointing outcome.
In light of this, it's somewhat alarming that Boot Barn Holdings' P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company reject the analyst cohort's pessimism and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. There's a good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the negative growth outlook.
The Key Takeaway
Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.
We've established that Boot Barn Holdings currently trades on a higher than expected P/E for a company whose earnings are forecast to decline. Right now we are uncomfortable with the P/E as the predicted future earnings are unlikely to support a more positive sentiment for long. This places shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.
It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Boot Barn Holdings that you need to take into consideration.
It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.