Global macroscopic
Before Friday's market, the three major indices weakened slightly
Nearly $400 billion in liquidity will be lost! The pace of the Federal Reserve's downsizing is about to slow
Wall Street analysts said that as the April tax deadline approaches, there is also a growing risk of chaos in the US financing market. Bank reserves (that is, cash held by institutions in the Federal Reserve to meet unexpected needs) currently stands at $3.62 trillion, while Wall Street predicts that potential tax-related outflows will be at least $400 billion, so reserves may fall below the so-called “comfortable” level of $3 trillion. The Federal Reserve is also discussing when to slow the pace of quantitative austerity to avoid repeating the sharp rise in overnight financing costs in 2019.
Wall Street's “Most Promising Prophet” says: “First drop in June” hopes are still there; now is a good time to buy!
Wall Street's “most accurate predictor” Tom Lee, co-founder of the US investment agency Fundstrat, said that investors should immediately enter the market to buy after the hot March CPI report triggered a decline in the stock market. Lee believes that the possibility that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in June still exists, although after the CPI report was released, the futures market showed that this possibility was about 20%. He said, “I don't think this completely eliminates the possibility of interest rate cuts in June. Before the Federal Reserve makes an interest rate decision on June 12, it must also digest the other three CPI reports. If any of these CPI reports show a decline in inflation, the Fed may be inclined to cut interest rates.”
Federal Reserve officials are “hawking” again: no hurry, interest rate cuts need to be reduced or postponed this year
Boston Federal Reserve Bank Governor Collins issued a warning on Thursday saying that the strong US economy and rising inflation data are not conducive to the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts. The bank may need to postpone or reduce interest rate cuts this year. “I expect it would be appropriate to start lowering the federal funds rate later this year,” Collins said. “Nevertheless, recent data suggests that it may take longer than I previously thought to gain more confidence in the downward trajectory of inflation before policy relaxation begins.”
Gold hit the 2,400 mark and reached a new high of 10 within 11 trading days
Spot gold continued to rise and hit the $2,400 mark. Within 11 trading days, it reached a new high in 10 trading days. Although the price of gold has since declined somewhat, it still hovered around $2,400. Analysts said this surge was mainly driven by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, which highlights the metals' function as a safe-haven asset. As of press release, spot gold was reported at $2395.53 per ounce.
Second bull market of the century! Citibank: Copper prices may soar 66%
Citibank analysts said they believe that the second long-term copper price bull market of this century is underway. This round of the bull market is about 20 years since the last bull market cycle. Analysts said that based on the bank's basic scenario assumptions, copper prices are expected to show an upward trend in the next few months, reaching an average of 10,000 US dollars per ton by the end of this year, and rising to 12,000 US dollars per ton in 2026. The analyst also said, “Under our bull market scenario, if there is a strong cyclical recovery in the economy over the next 2-3 years, copper prices are likely to explode by more than 66.7%, reaching more than 15,000 US dollars per ton.”
Hot news
Most of Star Technology's stocks fell before the market
Bank of America: Apple's skeptics may once again misjudge the stock's situation
Bank of America analyst Wamsey Mohan wrote: “Investors have always undervalued$Apple (AAPL.US)$As for gross profit margins, this situation seems to be repeated.” Mohan said that in 2018, the consensus forecast was that Apple's gross margin for fiscal year 2023 was 39%, but Apple actually recorded a gross profit margin of 44%. Looking ahead, he believes that Apple is expected to increase gross margin by about 180 basis points in the product business and 150 basis points in terms of services.
Firmly bullish on Apple? Xiaomo: The iPhone 17 is expected to be the first AI phone, which will inevitably set off the upgrade cycle!
Whether it is a drop in demand or increased competition, it has led$Apple (AAPL.US)$2024 will be extremely difficult. However, J.P. Morgan said this did not stop the enthusiasm of hedge fund investors. The bank said they are waiting for an iPhone upgrade cycle dominated by artificial intelligence (AI), and that valuation premiums are slowing down. The target price for Komo is 210 US dollars per share, which means that Apple's stock price can still rise by about 20% from the current level. Xiaomo anticipates that the iPhone 17 will be Apple's first “artificial intelligence phone” and is scheduled to be launched in September 2025.
Samsung Electronics will announce US chip plans worth $44 billion as soon as next week
$Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. (SSNLF.US)$We are preparing to announce a plan to invest 44 billion US dollars in US chip manufacturing as soon as next week. This is a landmark project in Washington's extensive efforts to bring semiconductor production back to the US.
BlackRock's Q1 revenue and profit both exceeded expectations, and the asset management scale increased 15% year over year to a record high
$Blackrock (BLK.US)$Results for the first quarter of 2024 were announced on Friday. In the three months ending March 31, the net profit of the world's largest asset management company increased to US$1.57 billion, or US$10.48 per share, an increase of 37% over the same period last year. Adjusted net profit increased 23% over the same period last year, higher than Wall Street's average estimate of $9.34. Driven by rising markets and capital inflows, the company's asset management scale (AUM) jumped to a record $10.47 trillion in the first quarter, up 15% year over year.
J.P. Morgan's Q1 revenue was US$41.934 billion, net profit of US$13.419 billion
$JPMorgan (JPM.US)$Q1 revenue in 2024 was $41.934 billion, up 9% year on year; net profit was US$13.419 billion, up 6% year on year; earnings per share were US$4.44, compared to US$4.1 in the same period last year.
Focus on China Securities
Popular Chinese securities fell sharply before the market
Baidu revealed new developments in the “Three Major AI Development Artifacts”, ModelBuilder has served 85,000 customers
The 2024 Baidu Create AI Developer Conference will be held on April 16. Yesterday,$Baidu (BIDU.US)$The latest developments in the three newly launched AI development artifacts — AgentBuilder, AppBuilder, and ModelBuilder — were revealed. These AI development tools will directly accelerate the enterprise AI application process while lowering the threshold for using large models. ModelBuilder has served 85,000 customers.
Top 20 pre-market turnover of US stocks
US Stock Macro Calendar Reminder
(The following are all Beijing time)
22:00 Preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index
22:00 US one-year inflation rate forecast (%)
The next day
01:00 Total number of US oil drills for the week (port)
02:30 2024 FOMC Voting Committee and Atlanta Federal Reserve Chairman Bostic deliver speeches on property market issues
03:30 2024 FOMC Voting Committee and San Francisco Federal Reserve Chairman Daly delivered a speech at a fintech conference
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