Incidents:
The company released the first quarter results report of 2024. In Q1, the company achieved operating income of 1,222 million yuan (YoY -5.42%, QoQ +5.48%); realized net profit of 317 million yuan (YoY +20.91%, QoQ +42.33%), net profit attributable to mother after deducting non-recurring profit and loss of 313 million yuan (YoY +23.82%, QoQ +39.38%).
Comment:
2024Q1's high performance growth reflects the effectiveness of improving quality and efficiency. Although the company's Q1 revenue in 2024 declined slightly from the same period of the previous year due to sales volume, net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies increased 20.91% year over year; net profit after deducting non-recurring profit and loss increased 23.82% year on year, showing the company's effectiveness in controlling product prices and costs, reflecting the company's strong competitiveness and good profitability in the blood products industry.
The amount of pulp collected has been rising steadily, and production capacity construction has gradually been realized. As of 2023, the company's single plasma collection stations were distributed in 16 provinces/autonomous regions across the country. The total number of single plasma collection stations reached 102, of which 80 were in operation. The company's 79 commercial plasma collection stations achieved 2,415 tons of plasma collection, accounting for about 20% of the total plasma collection volume in the domestic industry, an increase of 18.67% over the previous year. The company will have three production bases for blood products with a injection capacity of over 1,000 tons in a single plant. Among them, the Chengdu Rongsheng Yong'an Plant has been put into operation and completed production site changes for products such as human coagulation factor VIII, human immunoglobulin, tetanus human immunoglobulin, hepatitis B human immunoglobulin, etc.; the Shanghai Blood System Yunnan project has completed process verification and MES, SCADA, and DCS system acceptance; the Lanzhou Blood System Lanzhou project has completed structural capping, secondary structure and partial installation of the main workshop (comprehensive workshop, separation workshop). The design capacity of the above three blood products production bases is 1,200 tons. In the future, as the Yunnan project and the Lanzhou project are gradually put into operation, the company's performance growth momentum is strong.
The product range continues to be rich, and profitability is expected to continue to increase. Chengdu Rongsheng fourth-generation 10% concentration intravenous human immunoglobulin (10% Rongshengjing C) was approved for marketing in China. It is the first gamma globulin developed by chromatography, and the process upgrade has reached the leading international level; injectable recombinant human coagulation factor VIII has obtained marketing approval; human fibrinogen and Lanzhou blood prothrombin complex are in the marketing license application stage; subcutaneous injection of human immunoglobulin and recombinant human coagulation factor VIII-A for injection are undergoing phase III clinical trials; the fusion of injectable recombinant human coagulation factor VIII and Fc is undergoing phase III clinical trials; fusion of injectable recombinant human coagulation factor VIII and FC Prothrombin complex obtained from Guizhou blood system “Drug Clinical Trial Approval Notice”. In 2023, the company obtained 22 authorized patents, including 7 invention patents and 15 utility model patents. In the future, as the company's various products are approved for sale one after another, the company's slurry efficiency level is expected to continue to improve, and the company's profitability is expected to continue to increase.
Profit forecast: We expect the company's 2024-2026 revenue to be 61.39, 73.35 billion yuan, and 8.764 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 18.50%, 19.49%, and net profit to mother of 13.61, 16.60, and 2.011 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.65%, 21.91%, and 21.16% respectively, corresponding to the current stock price PE of 31, 26, and 21 times, respectively, maintaining the “Highly Recommended” rating.
Risk warning: Product sales fall short of expectations, R&D progress falls short of expectations, risk of market policy adjustments, etc.