Key points of investment
Key points of the announcement: SAIC Motor's production in March 2024 was 390,155 vehicles, +7%/+106% YoY; sales volume was 381,391 vehicles, +8%/+83% YoY respectively. Among them: SAIC's passenger car production and sales volume in March was 75,948/79,008 units, respectively, -14%/-4% year-on-year, and +133%/+140% month-on-month respectively; SAIC Volkswagen's March production and sales volume was 89,146/90,003 units, +11% year-on-year, +29%/+43% month-on-month; SAIC-GM's March production and sales volume was 70,237/62,000 vehicles, +10%/-1% year-on-year, and +748%/+35% month-on-month; SAIC-GM-Wuling production and sales in March The volume was 120,316/114,009 vehicles, respectively, +27%/+26% year over year and +107%/+52% month over month.
SAIC-GM's production and sales returned to normal levels in March, and exports maintained high year-on-month growth. 1) By brand, SAIC-GM's production and sales have returned to normal levels. SAIC-GM Wholesale was +359% month-on-month, and SAIC-GM's NEV deliveries increased 49.8% year over year. SAIC's passenger car wholesale sales reached +140% month-on-month, and Roewe New Energy's overall sales volume was +57.7% year-on-year, driven by D7 products. Production and sales of Zhiji also showed a month-on-month improvement in March. 2) By energy type, 84,800 new energy vehicles were sold at the group level, +30%/+39% year-on-month. At the group level, production batches of new energy vehicles in March were 840/84,800 units respectively, +33%/+30% year over year and +42%/+39% month over month. The wholesale penetration rate of new energy sources in March was 22.24%. 3) Looking at domestic and foreign markets, SAIC Motor exported 105,200 vehicles in March, +9%/+84% year-on-month, respectively, with excellent performance. Among them, the SAIC MG brand sold more than 20,000 vehicles in a single month, maintaining year-on-year growth.
SAIC Motor Group's overall inventory was replenished in March. In March, SAIC Motor Group companies had an inventory of +8,764 vehicles for the month (compared to February 2024), while SAIC-Volkswagen, SAIC-GM, SAIC-GM Wuling, and Zhiji had inventories of -857, +8,237, -3,060, +6,307, and -1,625 vehicles, respectively (compared to February 2024).
Profit forecast and investment rating: 1) Independent brand new energy+ exports go hand in hand: the company's core technology, new energy three-power system+intelligent software and hardware full-stack layout, smart self promotes high-end independent brands. At the same time, the company's export performance continues to be impressive, and overseas sales continue to lead the domestic industry. 2) Active transformation of the joint venture: The company signed a memorandum of understanding with Audi to jointly develop a variety of new smart electric models for the Chinese market; integrated superior resources with GM to establish a new software and digitization center in SAIC-GM; SAIC Volkswagen actively adjusted its marketing strategy to accelerate the brand's voice in the new energy vehicle market. We maintain the company's net profit forecast for 2024-2026 at 142.7/176.8/19.63 billion yuan, corresponding PE to 12/10/9 times, and maintain the company's “buy” rating.
Risk warning: The recovery in passenger car demand fell short of expectations; the increase in the penetration rate of new energy fell short of expectations; and the industry price war exceeded expectations.